The digital revolution is having a dramatic impact on retail commerce and how consumers make purchases. The e-commerce market continues to grow rapidly. Estimated at $1.1 trillion globally in 2013, up from $0.5 trillion in 2002, it is expected to grow by 15 percent per year even in mature economies such as the U.S. and the U.K. And few product categories are “store advantaged”—just about anything that can be bought in a shop can also be bought online, and often far more conveniently for consumers.
In this environment, merchants with a brick-and-mortar presence are seeking to defend their market positions from purely online retailers by using their physical assets to create differentiated cross-channel offerings. Their aim is to merge digital elements with their physical stores. In its simplest form, this can mean allowing customers to buy online for in-store pickup or order in-store for delivery at home. Leading retailers are taking things further by means such as sending targeted offers to customers’ mobile phones and streamlining the checkout experience with tablet-based systems at the point of sale.
In order to facilitate the creation of an enhanced multichannel experience, many merchants are revamping their back-office systems to break down existing silos. They aim to create broad inventory visibility across their stores and e-commerce sites. In the same spirit, more retailers are looking to work with a single payments provider across all channels. All of these dynamics are fostering new opportunities for payments players—and generating new revenue pools.
New Revenue Pools
Relative to offline transactions, online spending typically generates two to three times more revenue for payments providers. (See the exhibit below.) This higher revenue is due both to the payment mix—because cards rather than cash or checks dominate online—and to the additional services, such as fraud management, associated with each transaction.
Intensifying Competition
As payments players look to defend their current positions or build new ones, they are pursuing M&A opportunities. Activity has been heavy in recent years, with the major payments schemes, acquirers, and providers of terminals all buying payment service providers (PSPs). In addition to these moves across the value chain, there has been regional consolidation at each individual step.
We expect to see significant M&A activity continuing as the industry moves toward a new equilibrium structure. Indeed, institutions all along the value chain will need to explore acquisitions, partnerships, and organic investments in order to gain the capabilities they need to thrive in a world increasingly composed of open payments ecosystems. Our overall belief is that there will ultimately be a small number of business models.
For example, small acquirers will need to partner with regional service providers such as traditional hardware suppliers and standalone PSPs in order to gain the capabilities that they will require. These banks will be unable to justify investments in multiple areas—such as in new technology and fraud protection—to develop the necessary capabilities in-house. Moreover, the importance of achieving scale on core technology platforms will mean that only a few regional and global service providers will survive to serve the small acquirers. These providers will also have the opportunity to partner directly with the largest merchants, especially the cross-border ones.
Por outro lado, grandes adquirentes poderão pagar os investimentos pesados necessários para desenvolver recursos importantes internamente, organicamente ou através de fusões e aquisições. Mais de alguns bancos grandes provavelmente seguirão esse caminho. Nossa visão, no entanto, é que relativamente poucos o farão com sucesso. No final, os vencedores terão que criar a estrutura organizacional necessária para realizar várias tarefas: ativar a inovação, atingir os volumes necessários para justificar grandes investimentos, entregar um produto diferenciado aos comerciantes e extrair valor dos comerciantes fora do relacionamento de processamento de pagamentos puros. O primeiro é servir o segmento de maior risco, principalmente on-line (como benmas digitais ou preocupações on-line), nas quais eles têm experiência específica e fortes relacionamentos com os clientes. Esse segmento não é interessante para os principais adquirentes. O segundo nicho está em oferecer um produto altamente diferenciado a um conjunto específico de segmentos comerciais - por exemplo, oferecendo forte integração com o software específico de planejamento de recursos corporativos (ERP) ou focando em uma indústria específica. ofertas e operações. Os adquirentes precisarão fazer o máximo de alterações. E as etapas que cada um deve tomar dependerão de suas posições e capacidades atuais de mercado, vemos quatro movimentos de não-réguas. soluções. Uma estratégia clara é particularmente importante para os bancos que estão reinvestindo na aquisição de um ponto de âncora para relacionamentos mais amplos de banco corporativo. Alguns procurarão criar recursos internamente e impulsionar a diferenciação, como um banco da Ásia-Pacífico que investiu fortemente em PSP e sistemas de ponto de venda baseados em dispositivos móveis. Para muitos, no entanto, particularmente aqueles que não têm escala, parcerias com PSPs e integradores de sistemas existentes serão a melhor opção. Os jogadores podem precisar fazer movimentos ao longo da cadeia de valor para controlar os elementos -chave da experiência do cliente. Um exemplo pode ser um PSP assumindo um risco financeiro aumentado para melhorar o controle do processo de integração. Ao mesmo tempo, eles precisarão garantir uma forte continuidade nas habilidades principais de TI, como velocidade, segurança e estabilidade. Os recursos técnicos, como os necessários para criar APIs que permitem que os desenvolvedores de terceiros se integrem facilmente, também serão críticos. Por exemplo, embora estejamos céticos em relação à economia da microacquira (processamento de transações para micromerchantes), especialmente em um mundo EMV, acreditamos que os microacquiers mudaram o jogo em termos de simplificar e acelerar o processo de configuração do comerciante.
Moreover, small independent PSPs will survive in two niches. The first is in serving the higher-risk, primarily online-only segment (such as digital-goods or online-gambling concerns) in which they have specific expertise and strong customer relationships. This segment is not of interest to mainstream acquirers. The second niche is in offering a highly differentiated product to a specific set of merchant segments—for example, by offering strong integration with specific enterprise resource planning (ERP) software or focusing on a specific industry.
The Need to Act Now
In order to thrive in the new environment, all types of players will need to adapt—to sharpen their strategies, build scale, and continue to drive improvement in their offerings and operations. Acquirers will need to make the most changes. And while the steps that each must take will depend on their current market positions and capabilities, we see four no-regrets moves.
- Develop a clear strategic plan for where to build in-house versus where to partner. This principle holds both for go-to-market matters—local acquirers still have very strong merchant relationships, for instance—and for technological capabilities such as fraud-management solutions. A clear strategy is particularly important for banks that are reinvesting in acquiring as an anchor point for broader corporate-banking relationships. Some will look to build capabilities in-house and drive differentiation, such as one Asia-Pacific bank that has invested heavily in PSP and mobile-based point-of-sale systems. For many, however, particularly those that lack scale, partnerships with existing PSPs and systems integrators will be the best option.
- Carefully identify the customer segments in which you want to win—and offer the services needed to do so. Merchant requirements are becoming increasingly diverse, which implies the need to tailor and differentiate in order to deliver optimal solutions. Players may need to make moves along the value chain in order to control key elements of the customer experience. An example might be a PSP taking increased financial risk to improve control of the on-boarding process.
- Build the IT organization and capabilities needed to work within an open, evolving ecosystem. Institutions may need to create distinct teams to allow a flexible, iterative, developmental approach for the “consumer” IT experience. At the same time, they will need to ensure strong continuity in core IT skills such as speed, security, and stability. Technical capabilities, such as those needed to create APIs that allow third-party developers to integrate easily, will also be critical.
- Focus on improving the retailer and cardholder customer experience. There is much to learn from new market entrants. For example, while we are skeptical about the economics of microacquiring (processing transactions for micromerchants), especially in an EMV world, we believe that microacquirers have changed the game in terms of simplifying and speeding up the merchant setup process.
A evolução global em direção a mais pagamentos on-line está, portanto, um papel central na impulsionadora do crescimento nos pools de receita de pagamentos-indústria. Na Europa, espera -se que o pool de receita para provedores de serviços de pagamento atinja cerca de US $ 1,5 bilhão até 2016, em comparação com cerca de US $ 0,8 bilhão em 2012.
Ao intensificar a concorrência entre os pagamentos, certamente criarão pressão de preços, os pool de receita mais altos serão apoiados pela maior complexidade na indústria e pela disposição dos comerciantes a pagar por maneiras a pagar as maneiras de pagar as maneiras que são as maneiras que são apoiadas por contas. Por exemplo, os comerciantes estão dispostos a pagar por recursos como uma integração mais detalhada em seus sistemas de back-office, recursos de tokenização multicanal e suporte para interfaces do programa de aplicativos de pagamento móvel (APIs). Os comerciantes internacionais, por sua vez, exigem capacidade de conversão de moeda, maior prevenção de fraudes e acesso a esquemas de pagamentos locais e redes de adquirentes (que processam transações com cartões para comerciantes).
Além disso, particularmente na Europa, os adquirentes estão aproveitando os novos recursos de pagamento on-line para ajudar os comerciantes a superar os desafios que enfrentam em suas lojas físicas. Por exemplo, alguns adquirentes estão começando a oferecer soluções cruzadas com relatórios consistentes e troca de transações inteligentes. Stefan Dab
