Custo da crise de vida

In October 2022, BCG surveyed 4,000 consumers across Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Finland to understand consumer sentiment and the resulting behavioral and spending changes at this time of economic uncertainty. Our research focused on key insights for retailers and consumer goods companies that can enable them to respond to the cost-of-living crisis and emerge stronger. The survey confirms that Nordic consumer sentiment has weakened. Consumers have seen a significant decrease in how much they can afford—and they expect this trend to continue.

In mid-2021, when Covid began to subside, Nordic consumers were very optimistic about increasing their spending, especially in categories hard hit during the pandemic, such as restaurants, leisure travel, and live entertainment. However, these plans have now been abandoned, with consumers reporting that they plan to spend less across categories and focus on essentials.

Também vemos que a parcela de comércio eletrônico do varejo parece estar se estabilizando após a queda pós-pandêmica, com os consumidores pretendendo manter sua parcela on-line atual de compras. No entanto, as compras on-line são frequentemente percebidas como mais caras do que as compras na loja, o que torna a percepção dos preços um fator-chave para o comércio eletrônico no novo ambiente. No entanto, eles ainda consideram a sustentabilidade como importante, e a crise de custo de vida acelera as tendências em direção a outros comportamentos mais sustentáveis ​​do consumidor, como a compra de bens de segunda mão e o consumo de menos carne. Consumidores. Últimos seis meses. No entanto, vai piorar antes que melhore, com 72% esperando que sua renda discricionária seja mais atingida nos próximos seis meses. Outros 47% se sentem seguros no momento, mas estão preocupados que isso mude - conduzido principalmente por preocupações com o aumento dos custos de energia, a economia e a inflação disparada. Como esperado, consumidores e famílias de baixa renda com crianças estão se sentindo menos seguros. Quase metade dos consumidores pesquisados, 44%, relatam que eles economizarão menos, não economizarão, ou até precisarão explorar suas economias existentes. Renda discricionária para recusar mais do que suas contrapartes nórdicas.

With less money to spend, consumer willingness to pay for sustainable products have also decreased. Nonetheless, they still see sustainability as important, and the cost-of-living crisis accelerates trends toward other more sustainable consumer behaviors, such as purchasing secondhand goods and consuming less meat.

It is time for retailers to act—revisiting price and price perception across channels, lowering costs, and revamp sustainability efforts to offer more affordable options for consumers.

We Are in the Middle of a Spending Shift

CONSUMERS EXPECT THEIR DISCRETIONARY INCOME TO DECLINE FURTHER

No less than 68% of surveyed consumers report that their discretionary income has declined over the last six months. However, it will get worse before it gets better, with 72% expecting that their discretionary income will take a further hit in the next six months.

Among Nordic consumers, 25% do not feel financially secure with the current status of their household economy. Another 47% feel secure at the moment, but are worried that this will change—driven mainly by concerns around rising energy costs, eroding savings, and skyrocketing inflation. As expected, low-income consumers and households with children are feeling the least secure. Almost half of surveyed consumers, 44%, report that they will either save less, not save at all, or even have to tap into their existing savings.

From a Nordic perspective, although the sentiment is similar across the region, consumers in Norway and Finland expect their discretionary income to decline more than their Nordic counterparts.

Orçamentos mais apertados significam focar mais no essencial, comprar menos e mudar para opções mais baratas

Although spending will decline across categories, the biggest drop is expected to be in discretionary categories. Apparel, restaurants, leisure travel, live entertainment, and cultural events—in which spending boomed immediately post-Covid—are expected to show a strong decline (5%–7% in overall spending) in the months to come. A similar trend is expected for other discretionary categories such as jewelry; home furnishing and DIY; electronics and appliances; sports and sporting equipment; as well as food delivery.

Essentials such as fresh fruits and vegetables; packaged, frozen, and canned food and beverages; and transportation are the least impacted in terms of reduction in sales. Within essentials, consumers are planning to cut their spending primarily by switching to cheaper brands and shopping at discount stores, rather than buying less. Among respondents, 35% plan to trade down in groceries, while only 13% feel that they will buy less groceries in the next six months.1 39% of respondents are already shopping at low-cost grocery brands, and another 40% state that they are likely to increase their share of grocery shopping at low-cost brands, creating a big opportunity for retailers.

E-Commerce Share of Retail Is Expected To Stabilize With Price Perception the Key to Success

POST-COVID DECLINE IN ONLINE SHARE IS LEVELING OFF

Durante a pandemia, uma grande parte dos consumidores foi movida on-line devido a bloqueios e outras restrições. No futuro, o compartilhamento on -line deverá platô nos níveis atuais. Os consumidores valorizam a inspiração que encontram nas lojas, a facilidade de encontrar os produtos que desejam e a disponibilidade de suporte ao cliente, todos ausentes on-line. Por exemplo, os passos aumentaram em restaurantes, resultando em um forte declínio na participação on -line do consumo, diminuindo 6 pontos percentuais, de 25% para 19%. Os móveis domésticos, eletrônicos, cosméticos e mantimentos foram atingidos menos com força e só viram um declínio de 3% no compartilhamento de consumo on -line. Baixa parcela do consumo on-line em mantimentos (10%), móveis domésticos e bricolage (18%) e restaurantes e tomada (19%) parecem estar ligados a uma percepção de preços mais alta dos produtos on-line (preço, incluindo entrega) nessas categorias.

However, as soon as those restrictions were lifted, they started returning to brick-and-mortar stores, leading to a decline in online’s share of consumption. Going forward, the online share is expected to plateau at current levels.

Consumers have reported two main reasons for choosing to shop at a physical store instead of online: 1) the need to touch and feel products before purchasing, and 2) convenience of bringing the products home directly. Consumers value the inspiration they find in stores, the ease of finding the products they want and the availability of customer support, all of which are missing online.

Consumers also started getting back to re-discovering experiences they were missing out on during the pandemic. For example, footfall increased in restaurants, resulting in a strong decline in online share of consumption, going down 6 percentage points, from 25% to 19%. Home furnishings, electronics, cosmetics, and groceries were hit less hard and only saw a 3% decline in online consumption share.

PREFERENCE FOR ONLINE OVER PHYSICAL STORES RELATED TO PRICE PERCEPTION

The low share of online consumption in groceries (10%), home furnishings and DIY (18%), and restaurants and take-out (19%) seem to be linked to a higher price perception of online products (price including delivery) in these categories.

Essa tendência parece ser verdadeira para todos os países nórdicos - a única exceção sendo a Finlândia, onde, surpreendentemente, todas as categorias têm uma percepção de preços mais alta online. Apesar disso, o consumo on -line declarado do país na maioria das categorias está em pares com seus colegas nórdicos. Noruega. Isso é especialmente relevante nas categorias de compras e móveis para casa. No entanto, apenas 27% dos consumidores estão dispostos a pagar uma taxa adicional para reduzir os tempos de entrega.

Also, it is interesting to note that Swedish consumers state that 31% of their total consumption was online in the past six months in cosmetics, skin care, and hygiene compared with only 18% in Finland, 22% in Denmark, and 24% in Norway.

Overall, this shows a possibility for retailers that want to drive online sales to revisit the actual prices and price perception. This is especially relevant in the groceries and home furnishings categories.

CONSUMERS WANT FAST DELIVERY BUT ARE NOT WILLING TO PAY EXTRA FOR IT

Price and speed are the top two factors influencing shoppers when choosing delivery options for online purchases. However, only 27% of consumers are willing to pay an additional fee to shorten delivery times.

Consumers have also reported being able to bring products home with them instantly as a key reason for shopping in physical stores, ranking just below ability to touch/feel the products.

As empresas devem revisitar sua oferta on -line e preços de entrega para alinhá -lo à mudança de expectativas do consumidor. Isso também apresenta uma oportunidade para empresas que estabeleceram modelos eficientes da cadeia de suprimentos para se posicionarem como oferecendo opções de entrega rápidas a baixos custos. Aqueles que relatam poucas ou nenhuma de suas compras sendo sustentáveis ​​indicam que o alto preço é uma barreira -chave para a compra de produtos sustentáveis. Dinamarca.

Sustainability Remains Important for Consumers but Fewer Are Willing to Pay for It

Currently, 29% of consumers on an average report that many to most of their purchases today are sustainable. Those who report few or none of their purchases being sustainable indicate that high price is a key barrier to purchasing sustainable products.

Consumers in Sweden and Finland are more frequent buyers of sustainable products, with 34% and 40% consumers, respectively, reporting that many to most of their purchases are sustainable, compared with 25% and 19% in Norway and Denmark.

No entanto, como costuma ser o caso, há uma lacuna clara e digna. A maioria dos consumidores não está disposta a pagar um prêmio pela sustentabilidade. Apenas 20% a 30% dos entrevistados declararam que preferem produtos sustentáveis, mesmo que custem mais do que alternativas não sustentáveis. Uma exceção a isso é mantimentos, onde não menos que 48% abririam suas carteiras para comprar de forma sustentável, mesmo que custe extra. Em muitas categorias, incluindo vestuário e acessórios, eletrônicos e aparelhos e móveis para casa e DIY. Os consumidores dinamarqueses lideram os cuidados com a pele e a higiene dos cosméticos, e consumidores suecos em mantimentos e restaurantes/tomada. É provável que diminua ainda mais. A maioria dos consumidores pesquisados ​​(65%) afirmou que eles mudarão para alternativas não-sustentáveis ​​menos custosas se sua renda discricionária diminuir. Curiosamente, 52% dos consumidores que estão atualmente dispostos a pagar um prêmio de sustentabilidade também ecoaram esse sentimento. Produção, pegada de dióxido de baixo carbono, etc. Isso indica que há um potencial para as empresas oferecerem sustentabilidade acessível. A chave é encontrar um posicionamento com foco no valor do produto em termos de preço/qualidade, em vez de acreditar que a sustentabilidade dos produtos superará outros aspectos. Comportamentos, como comprar mais segunda mão, comer menos carne e comprar apenas o que é necessário. Declina. Consumo de produtos de carne fresca:

It is worth noting that Norwegian and Finnish consumers have a higher willingness to pay a sustainability premium in many categories, including apparel and accessories, electronics and appliances, and home furnishings and DIY. Danish consumers take a lead in cosmetics skin care and hygiene, and Swedish consumers in groceries and restaurants/take-out.

As the cost-of-living crisis continues, consumer willingness to pay extra for sustainable products is likely to decrease even further. A majority of surveyed consumers (65%) stated that they will shift to less-costly non-sustainable alternatives if their discretionary income decreases. Interestingly, 52% of consumers who are currently willing to pay a sustainability premium also echoed this sentiment.

Price and quality are top of mind for consumers when purchasing sustainable products, keeping them above sustainable raw materials, country of production, low carbon dioxide footprint, etc. This indicates that there is a potential for companies to offer affordable sustainability. The key is to find a positioning focusing on the product value in terms of price/quality rather than believing the products sustainability will outweigh other aspects.

THE COST-OF-LIVING CRISIS ACCELERATES THE TREND TOWARD MORE SUSTAINABLE CONSUMER BEHAVIORS

The silver lining for sustainability in the cost-of-living crisis is that it seems to accelerate the trend toward more sustainable consumer behaviors, such as buying more second hand, eating less meat, and buying only what is needed.

Circular business models: Among consumers, 50% report being more likely to purchase second hand products—especially in home furnishings and apparel—as their discretionary incomes decline.

However, it is worth noting that limited cost benefits, difficulty in finding products, items being too worn down, and low quality are key inhibitors slowing down the adoption of secondhand alternatives.

Reduced consumption of fresh meat products: A pesquisa indica um declínio mais forte nos gastos com produtos de carne fresca em comparação com outros produtos alimentícios, com os consumidores afirmando que eles "planejam comprar menos carne, devido a razões de sustentabilidade, além de economizar dinheiro". 

Overconsumo reduzido: A crise de custo de vida tornou os consumidores mais cautelosos. Eles planejam comprar apenas o quanto precisam, com muitos planejando comprar menos nas categorias. Os consumidores estão, por exemplo, afirmando que eles “ Pense muito mais antes de se comprometer com uma compra ”e“ Compre apenas produtos que eles precisam e usarão por um longo tempo. Para melhorar a crise de custo de vida:”

Priorities to Win in the Cost-of-Living Crisis

After reflecting on the latest consumer sentiment, we believe retailers should focus on six things to better navigate the cost-of-living crisis:

• Redução de preços e revisitando mixagens para competir com os descontos; PAGAR; Instabilidade geopolítica e interrupções da cadeia de suprimentos.  
• better manage price perception online to drive e-commerce sales; 
• reduce cost in order to afford a better price positioning; 
• revisit online delivery offering to match consumer expectations and willingness to pay; 
• guide consumers to affordable sustainable options;  
• and rethink their business model to incorporate sustainability and circularity. Retailers that manage to develop affordable circular business models will be able to meet consumer demand for secondhand products and low-cost sustainable options, while also insulating them against e.g. geopolitical instability and supply chain disruptions.  

Diz -se que Winston Churchill uma vez brincou ”, nunca Deixe uma boa crise ir para o desperdício”. Agora é a hora das empresas investirem na redefinição de seu posicionamento, redefinindo sua configuração e reduzindo o desperdício-a partir da crise de custo de vida, com uma oferta mais forte e uma configuração mais eficiente e resiliente. Nanna Gelebo