Embora o negócio de peças de peças de auto-peças européias de € 64 bilhões seja lucrativo e crescente, está enfrentando uma série de desafios-um resultado de grandes mudanças globais, outros vinculados a volatilidade econômica de curto prazo-que transformarão a indústria nos próximos anos, receita ameaçadora e lucros. (CLEPA) e consultoria de pós -venda automotiva Wolk After Sales Experts, realizou entrevistas e workshops com mais de 600 executivos, analistas e especialistas em todo o espectro de pós -venda. A partir dessas sessões, produzimos um estudo que forneceu uma janela para a dinâmica e os desafios que a indústria enfrenta. Nosso artigo atual tem como objetivo responder a duas perguntas para empresas européias de pós -venda:
In 2022, BCG, in collaboration with the European Association of Automotive Suppliers (CLEPA) and automotive aftermarket consultancy Wolk After Sales Experts, held interviews and workshops with more than 600 executives, analysts, and experts across the aftermarket spectrum. From those sessions, we produced a study that provided a window into the changing dynamics and challenges that the industry faces.
BCG has built on this research with a deeper assessment of the European aftermarket, taking into consideration recent developments in the post COVID-19 pandemic years. Our current paper aims to answer two questions for European aftermarket companies: onde jogar? e Como ganhar? As condições- incluindo a dor a curto ou médio prazo da inflação persistente na Europa, escassez de energia e conflitos geopolíticos- podem diminuir a renda disponível dos proprietários de carros, aumentar os preços no mercado de reposição e ampliar os tempos de entrega para peças de reposição. Além disso, devido às perspectivas econômicas e à quantidade relativamente alta de penetração de veículos na Europa, os novos registros de carros provavelmente diminuirão nos próximos anos. O impacto combinado dessas tendências provavelmente se traduzirá em um mercado de lentidão para manutenção e reparos. Na frente regulatória, os requisitos envolvendo peças reciclagem e reutilização e redução das emissões de carbono na fabricação de peças, entre outras regras relacionadas a troca climática mais rigorosas, adicionarão novas oportunidades e custos ao ambiente de pós-venda. número de peças nos veículos e minimize a necessidade de manutenção. Quantidades crescentes de dados no carro estarão disponíveis, fornecendo às empresas de pós-venda mais informações sobre o comportamento do motorista que podem ser ferramentas de vendas úteis para empresas com recursos digitais suficientes para forjar linhas diretas para os consumidores. Outra questão, talvez mais a longo prazo, é a tecnologia de assistência ao motorista, reduzindo as colisões e, portanto, a necessidade de peças de reposição. Além disso, agregadores e intermediários que orientam grupos de clientes a uma rede de oficinas de reparo provavelmente terão uma influência mais decisiva no mercado de reposição na última metade deste decreto. Os atacadistas também serão ameaçados porque essas empresas on -line geralmente os evitam e, em vez disso, atingem acordos de compras diretas com fornecedores. No entanto, alguns atacadistas estão tentando expandir suas quotas de mercado carregando rótulos particulares, que geralmente podem ser vendidos com desconto e estão cada vez mais disponíveis para peças e acessórios comuns de manutenção. As etiquetas particulares representam até 50% das vendas básicas de peças. Os fornecedores de nível 1 devem prestar muita atenção às etiquetas particulares e formular respostas estratégicas dedicadas. Enquanto isso, os OEMs olharão possíveis parcerias para ampliar ainda mais sua presença geral de pós -venda, em segmentos novos e existentes.
The aftermarket dimensions explored in this study cover four distinct areas:
Macroeconomics and Regulations
Uncertain economic conditions—including the short- or medium-term pain of persistent inflation in Europe, energy shortages, and geopolitical conflicts—could decrease car owners’ disposable income, increase prices in the aftermarket, and stretch out delivery times for spare parts. In addition, because of the economic outlook and the relatively high amount of vehicle penetration in Europe, new car registrations will likely decline in the coming years. The combined impact of these trends will probably translate into a slowing market for maintenance and repairs. On the regulatory front, requirements involving parts recycling and reuse and reducing carbon emissions in parts manufacturing, among other stricter climate-change related rules, will add new opportunities and costs to the aftermarket environment.
Technology
Rising part complexity, including the proliferation of sensors for connectivity and autonomous driving, will push aftermarket prices higher, while the emergence of electric vehicles will reduce the number of parts in vehicles and minimize the need for maintenance. Increasing amounts of in-car data will be available, giving aftermarket companies more information about driver behavior that can be helpful sales tools for businesses with sufficient digital capabilities to forge direct lines to consumers. Another, perhaps more long-term issue, is driver assistance technology reducing collisions and thus the need for replacement parts.
Customer Behavior
Fleets will play a bigger role in a new mobility landscape with expanded car sharing and app-based services—and will seek alliances with preferred aftermarket companies to get favorable prices and drive efficiency for maintenance, parts, and integrated coverage. In addition, aggregators and intermediaries who steer groups of customers to a network of repair shops will likely have a more decisive influence in the aftermarket in the last half of this decade.
Value Chain and Competition
Increased competition from e-commerce aftermarket players will put pressure on parts providers. Wholesalers will also be threatened because these online companies often sidestep them and instead strike direct procurement agreements with suppliers. However, some wholesalers are trying to expand their market shares by carrying private labels, which can often be sold at a discount and are increasingly available for common maintenance parts and accessories. Private labels account for as much as 50% of basic parts sales. Tier 1 suppliers must pay close attention to private labels and formulate dedicated strategic responses. Meanwhile, OEMs will eye possible partnerships to further widen their overall aftermarket presence, in both new and existing segments.
Nessas quatro categorias, várias tendências importantes terão o impacto mais significativo e evidente no mercado de reposição europeu no futuro imediato:
- Soluções inteligentes acionadas pela GenAi, fornecem que os jogadores de gestão de 1960 e mais com os que estão de acordo com a administração de serviços de administração e os clientes. As matérias -primas por reciclagem e remanufatura se tornarão cada vez mais importantes. Reduza as margens de lucro no ecossistema europeu de pós -venda até a próxima década. Consequentemente, as empresas devem começar a projetar novas estratégias para proteger suas margens de lucro agora, para que possam manter suas posições de mercado no futuro. (Consulte Anexos 1–5 Slideshow.)
- Data-driven pricing and inventory management will support revenue and cost management strategies.
- Circularity of raw materials through recycling and remanufacturing will become increasingly important.
- Fleet owners will play a bigger role in aftermarket activities.
- Applications, parts, and traditional profit pools will shift markedly as EV market share expands.
Combined with the other changes in macroeconomics and regulations, technology, customer behavior, and value chain and competition, these trends threaten to slow growth and reduce profit margins in the European aftermarket ecosystem through the next decade. Consequently, companies must start to design new strategies to protect their profit margins now so they can maintain their market positions in the future. (See Exhibits 1–5 slideshow.)
Overall, the European automotive aftermarket has enjoyed steady growth of about 2% per year since 2011. By 2022, the independent aftermarket (IAM)—companies without contractual ties to a single vehicle manufacturer and offering multi-brand solutions—had garnered a 60% market share, driven largely by an increase in aging cars still on the road and budget-conscious customers. Through 2026, we expect both IAM companies and authorized repairers (AR)—the repair and maintenance sales networks exclusively linked to OEMs—to enjoy a healthy growth rate of 3% per year.
Post 2026, shifting Mercado Automotivo A dinâmica - especialmente o aumento da penetração de recursos de direção autônoma e VEs, bem como uma importância aumentada dos reparos de software - minimizará a demanda por peças, reparos e manutenção mais tradicionais. Como resultado, o crescimento do mercado de reposição diminuirá para cerca de 1% ao ano. Nesse ambiente apertado, os ARs podem aumentar a participação de mercado ao reivindicar (com razão ou erro) níveis mais altos de experiência em novas tecnologias e usando seus relacionamentos e bancos de dados existentes para estimular as vendas de pós -venda maiores. Isso deve permitir que o canal autorizado aumente sua participação de mercado para 42% até 2035.
The EU automotive aftermarket will also be weighed down by slowing vehicle registrations. Historically, new car purchases have supported aftermarket expansion. But with increasing vehicle saturation in Western countries, the individual driver will contribute less and less to aftermarket gains over the next ten years. The annual growth rate of total registered vehicles will decline from an average of about 1.3% between 2011 and 2023 to only 0.5% from 2024 through 2035. From 2026 on, EVs will have a disparate impact on the aftermarket sector. As these cars become more prevalent, less vehicle complexity will reduce the need for repair and maintenance work. At the same time, the demand for complex new parts will spur supplier manufacturing growth, and the additional weight of EVs will drive tire sales. (See Exhibits 6–8 slideshow.)
With the aftermarket in turmoil and facing increasing pricing and sales pressure, individual players will have to adopt their best strategic reactions, in large part based on anticipated customer behaviors as they seek vehicle repairs. In our analysis, we identified the control points that will likely influence these customer decisions. We believe that the success of aftermarket players in the coming years will depend on how well they target and address the control points that are most closely related to their segment of the marketplace. (See Exhibit 9.)
Por exemplo, os proprietários de carros particulares serão cada vez mais influenciados por plataformas digitais e diagnósticos remotos em sua escolha de oficinas de reparo. Isso deve dar uma vantagem de OEMs e ARs, permitindo que eles aumentem a participação de mercado por meio de acesso direto a dados aos clientes, relacionamentos existentes do cliente e a capacidade de fornecer soluções integradas. Enquanto isso, as oficinas de reparos escolherão peças atacadistas com base em linhas e preços de produtos, bem como serviços adicionais, como treinamento em novas peças ou comunicações computadorizadas diretas para garagens digitalizadas. E atacadistas procurarão fornecedores que fabricam rótulos privados conscientes de preços e também ofereçam novas peças proprietárias e inovadoras, principalmente para os VEs.
Fleet operators—as well as insurance companies and aggregators—often contract with a network of aftermarket players and mandate that their customers patronize their aligned repair shops. Among the features that fleet operators will look for from ARs and IAMs are remote diagnosis using telematics and vehicle connectivity, real-time parts availability and reliably fast logistics, and quality guarantees ensuring the swift reintegration of vehicles into the fleet once repairs are completed.
As part of our analysis, we offer specific recommendations for each type of player in the European auto aftermarket to adopt in order to thrive, even as the landscape shifts around them. (See Exhibit 10.)
- Oficinas de reparo Deve melhorar a eficiência interna através da digitalização e preparar funcionários e equipamentos para novos reparos relacionados à eletrificação. Eles também devem se conectar cada vez mais com os clientes digitalmente e integrar necessidades e requisitos de frota e agregador em seus próprios sistemas de TI. O IAMS tem uma oportunidade potencial de forjar acordos exclusivos ou semi-exclusivos com os clientes de frota, se eles puderem oferecer serviços econômicos e atualizados.
- Intermediáriosneed to work on two strategic directives: building up scale and achieving integration with IT systems of other aftermarket players. They need to evaluate the implications of changing repair types on their business so they can accurately identify parts needed and where to find them as well as match customers to properly equipped shops.
- Wholesalers are well-positioned to be central facilitators and partners in the aftermarket space. To do this, they need to create digital platforms and develop technical proficiency with parts for new vehicles so they can service both repair shops and fleets efficiently and in an up-to-date fashion.
- Tier 1 suppliers should strengthen their marketshare through direct supply models to repair shops and e-commerce players. Moreover, they should widen and cement their relationships with OEMs by enhancing their capabilities in software and data technologies, particularly those involved with the growing number of EV components.
- OEMs/ARs can harden customer loyalty through targeted measures such as subscription-based services. In addition, by proactively developing repair and maintenance business models specializing in new technologies, chiefly autonomous vehicles and EVs, they can position themselves with consumers and fleets as trusted technical experts. For some OEMs, an investment in an IAM business can be an aggressive pathway to increase revenue and profit in their aftermarket business.
We believe that the European automobile aftermarket will continue to provide opportunities for companies, but to take advantage of them companies will have to be nimbler and more clued into shifting market conditions than before. Players across the spectrum will have to tap into new data streams created by the digitalization of automobiles and aftermarket processes. Vehicle electrification will require new and more innovative parts while sales channel competition, particularly online, will likely heat up. Traditional roles and relationships will be in flux and fresh alliances will be necessary. As is often the case, this level of turmoil is challenging—yet it can be rewarding for the fortunate few that act early to set a course to navigate the volatility.
