Até o momento, quase todos os gastos com mudanças climáticas - cerca de 95% - estão na prevenção e mitigação. Mas, à medida que os efeitos das mudanças climáticas se tornam mais graves e o objetivo de manter o aquecimento global abaixo de 1,5 ° C desliza fora do alcance, governos e indústrias estão girando para se concentrar mais na adaptação a longo prazo. Esses projetos para melhorar a resiliência terão grandes quantidades de capital e apresentarão uma oportunidade para os bancos abrirem novos caminhos de crescimento. (Consulte Anexo 1.)
Adaptation Spending to Skyrocket
As the planet grows warmer, no industry will be spared from increasingly frequent supply chain disruptions, operational interruptions, and reduced productivity. (See Exhibit 1.)
desde 2020:
- O número de empresas que relatam que esperam que o risco de adaptação e o que afete o Financials aumentou 3,6 vezes. Acelerar. Até 2030, o BCG estima que o setor privado gastará globalmente de US $ 2 trilhões a US $ 3 trilhões anualmente. Estimamos que o custo da inação será 7 a 15 vezes maior (US $ 20 trilhões a US $ 45 trilhões) do que os investimentos feitos para melhorar a resiliência climática. As empresas esperam principalmente impactos em seus:
- Corporate investment in adaptation and resilience has grown by 200%, and we expect that spending to accelerate.
In 2023, the 5% of global investments spent on climate adaptation (as opposed to the 95% spent on prevention and mitigation) amounted to $65 billion. By 2030, BCG estimates the private sector globally will spend $2 trillion to $3 trillion annually.
While companies might be tempted to avoid spending such huge sums, that would be shortsighted. We estimate that the cost of inaction will be 7 to 15 times greater ($20 trillion–$45 trillion) than the investments made to improve climate resiliency. Companies mainly expect impacts on their:
- Revenue (42% of total financial impact—mostly from production interruptions)
- Assets (30% of total financial impact—from asset write-off, impairment, and early retirement of assets)
- Costs (28% of total financial impact—from direct and indirect damages to operations and supply chains)
Em paralelo, bancos e instituições financeiras esperam principalmente impacto do aumento do risco de crédito (70%do impacto financeiro), reduz a lucratividade do portfólio de investimentos (17%) e aumentam as reivindicações de seguro (13%). Riscos, identifique soluções e financie esses inúmeros projetos. No setor imobiliário comercial, por exemplo, as empresas precisarão adaptar os edifícios. As empresas de logística devem reformar as rotas e suprir cadeias. As empresas de alimentos e agricultura precisam investir em novos métodos para o crescimento de alimentos. As empresas de construção precisam desenvolver novos materiais de construção. Isso não é apenas porque eles são credores, mas porque eles têm avaliado os impactos físicos de
Banks Are Uniquely Positioned to Advise
With this reality sinking in, companies are increasingly seeking a range of solutions to better understand climate risks, identify solutions, and finance these myriad projects. In the commercial real estate industry, for example, companies will need to retrofit buildings. Logistics companies must refashion routes and supply chains. Food and agriculture companies need to invest in new methods for growing food. Construction companies need to develop new building materials.
Banks are uniquely positioned to help companies advise on and fund such projects. This is not just because they are lenders but because they have been assessing the physical impacts of Mudança climática Durante anos, como parte de suas próprias decisões de investimento e empréstimos. Até agora, eram principalmente as equipes de risco de crédito analisando de perto esses dados. Agora, os credores precisam girar e começar a usar essas informações valiosas para fazer parceria com as empresas para ajudá -los a torná -los mais resilientes. Os bancos trazem:
- Capacidades incomparáveis na avaliação de risco físico
- A great ability to structure financial products
- A unique vantage point working across the public and private sectors
This creates opportunities for corporate investment banks, asset managers, commercial banks, and retail banks. (See Exhibit 2.)
The bottom line is that it is important for banks to not just assess climate change but to address it—and the benefits for banks go beyond growing the business. A systematic approach to adaption and resilience (A&R) financing will make their own portfolios more resilient from a climate physical risk perspective. It will also help them comply with regulatory requirements, which increasingly include monitoring and managing this type of risk. Efficient A&R action requires a cross-sector, systems-based approach, including the planning, financing, and implementation of A&R solutions. (See Exhibit 3.)
Overcoming Funding Barriers
Even though companies need financing for adaptation and resiliency projects, and even though banks have the expertise and resources to help, certain barriers must be overcome.
Information Gaps. Information on Riscos climáticos , falta os benefícios da adaptação e o custo da inação. Muitas vezes, as métricas simplesmente ainda não existem. Sem essa linguagem comum, os bancos e as empresas lutam para entender como os impactos físicos das mudanças climáticas afetam os resultados de uma empresa. Payoffs.
Difficulty with Prioritization. The lack of information and common metrics make it difficult to prioritize which measures to pursue now versus later, and how to assess the costs and benefits of pursuing measures with high up-front costs and longer-term payoffs.
Falta de soluções. E como esses empréstimos de A&R geralmente não geram fluxos de caixa-mas podem preservar os valores dos ativos e, portanto, estabilizar o fluxo de receita-os bancos podem lutar para subscrevê-los usando produtos atuais. Eles geralmente exigem estruturas e coordenação complexas envolvendo várias partes interessadas (públicas e privadas) com diferentes expectativas de impacto de risco-retorno. Recursos. UPSKILL A força de trabalho para entender melhor as alavancas que afetam a A&R, que criarão credibilidade com os clientes. Companies often believe that adaptation projects offer low or non-existent revenue benefits, largely because formulas do not account for the cost of inaction. And since these A&R loans often don’t generate cash flows—but might instead preserve asset values and hence stabilize revenue flow—banks can struggle to underwrite them using current products.
Project Complexity. Projects can cut across sectors and are site-specific. They often require complex structures and coordination involving several stakeholders (public and private) with different risk-return-impact expectations.
Five Critical Enablers
To overcome these barriers and capture the full value of A&R initiatives to fund climate adaptation and resiliency, we have identified five critical enablers.
Internal Capabilities. Review and complement existing processes to support the A&R journey—such as physical risk assessment and A&R deal assessment. Upskill the workforce to better understand the levers that impact A&R, which will build credibility with clients.
Dados e ferramentas. O fornecimento de dados deve incluir dados de nível de ativo, dados de perigo e dados do cliente. Build or acquire robust tools to identify and quantify climate risk across the portfolio, backed by a strong data strategy. Data sourcing should include asset-level data, hazard data, and client data.
Estratégia de entrada no mercado. ACOMENDO O ACMENDO DE ENVOLVIMENTO PARTE TRABRA O BANCO PRÓXIMO. Turn the A&R opportunity into a business reality by strategically initiating business discussions with clients early on. Hone the engagement pitch to become the go-to bank.
ecossistema de parceria. e moldar o cenário, envolvendo -se com todas as partes interessadas por meio de grupos de trabalho e mesas redondas, seminários e eventos -chave e relatórios. Aqueles que aplicam seus dados e evoluem seus produtos e serviços para ajudar as empresas a abordar as mudanças climáticas a se beneficiar no que está se transformando em um mercado multitrilhão de dólares. Connect the bank to an ecosystem of potential public and private partners, including multilateral development banks, development finance institutions, solution providers, insurance companies, and governments and local authorities.
Seat at the Table. Become a thought leader on the A&R topic and shape the landscape by engaging with all stakeholders through working groups and roundtables, seminars and key events, and reports.
As industries across the globe will feel the effects of climate change and work to adapt their operations to build resiliency, banks have a critical role to play in this effort. Those that apply their data and evolve their products and services to help companies address climate change stand to benefit in what is shaping up to be a multitrillion dollar market.
