para o CEO
tempos tumultuados forgem líderes formidáveis - ou aqueles que logo são esquecidos. À medida que os CEOs refletem em sua agenda para 2025, há forças em jogo que prometem remodelar fundamentalmente o cenário de negócios globais. Como os líderes navegam nessas condições em evolução podem determinar se suas empresas vacilam ou prosperam nos meses e anos seguintes. Ambiente. Em 2025: é provável que as tarifas aumentem em muitos mercados. O que não está claro é o quão alto essas tarifas serão e com que rapidez e ampliação elas serão implementadas. A resposta terá implicações para cadeias de suprimentos da empresa, acesso ao mercado e custos. Se novas taxas estiverem próximas, os países no final do recebimento provavelmente responderão em espécie, recontando ainda mais um
Informed by proprietary research and over a thousand conversations with leaders, BCG has identified five dynamics that will test the mettle and ingenuity of CEOs across industries and regions—from trade and AI to growth and climate imperatives, to maintaining a positive workplace culture in a changing political and social environment.
CEOs who master these dynamics are more likely to gain greater clarity on what lies ahead and free up valuable resources to drive growth—helping them mitigate the ever-increasing array of risks more successfully and seize emerging opportunities before their competitors.
Dynamic #1: Tariffs, Competitiveness, and the Rise of the Global South
This much seems clear about global trade in 2025: tariffs are likely to rise in many markets. What’s unclear is how high those tariffs will be and how quickly and broadly they’ll be implemented. The answer will have implications for company supply chains, market access, and costs.
US President-elect Donald Trump made tariff hikes a key promise on the campaign trail and in the run-up to his inauguration. If new levies are forthcoming, countries on the receiving end will likely respond in kind, further recontouring an Negócios Internacionais paisagem na qual StatCraft econômico está desfrutando de um ressurgimento. Aqueles que obtêm informações rapidamente têm maior probabilidade de preservar a participação de mercado e capturar oportunidades emergentes antes de seus concorrentes.
CEOs can prepare for this by developing capabilities that give them a clear understanding how their business and investment strategies would be impacted under different trade scenarios. Those that gain insights quickly are more likely to preserve market share and capture emerging opportunities before their competitors.
CEOs should develop capabilities that give them a clear understanding how their business and investment strategies would be impacted under different trade scenarios.
Uma questão -chave que os CEOs estão lutando é se os aumentos de tarifas chegarão em massa ou serão faseados gradualmente e direcionam setores específicos. “As mudanças políticas no extremo extremo do espectro, no entanto, podem levar a uma contração significativa no comércio, congelar cadeias de suprimentos globais e custos de acionamento.”
“A pragmatic approach would give companies time to adjust their manufacturing and global sourcing footprints, keeping the inflationary impact contained,” says Aparna Bharadwaj, a BCG managing director and partner who leads the firm’s Global Advantage practice. “Policy changes at the extreme end of the spectrum, however, could lead to a significant contraction in trade, freeze global supply chains, and drive-up costs.”
Under a baseline scenario that assumes no new tariffs, BCG estimates the value of annual US–China trade would contract by $159 billion by 2033. But an aggressive scenario in which the US imposes 60% tariffs on all goods imported from China and 20% on imports from the rest of the world would see US–China trade contract by a further 27%. Retaliatory actions by trade partners could further amplify the magnitude of these shifts, heightening the risk of trade wars and potentially pushing exporters who are shut out of big markets to flood those that remain open to them with goods—triggering yet more protectionist measures.
Companies and countries that fail to consider how these scenarios could impact their businesses are more likely to struggle to fill production gaps, possibly compromising market share. And tariffs are not the only tools that could alter the business landscape. Many business leaders expect policy shifts under the incoming Trump administration to supercharge the US economy, raising the competitive stakes and injecting new considerations into how CEOs—especially those in Europe—allocate investments geographically.
A related outgrowth of these changing dynamics is the rising power of the Global South—a group of 133 low- and middle-income countries, not including China, whose economies account for 18% of global GDP, 62% of the world’s population, and most of the world’s fastest-growing markets, incluindo Índia , Sudeste Asiático e África. As batalhas competitivas pelo acesso serão intensas.
Global South nations are ‘swing states’ that everyone wants to do business with. The competitive battles for access will be intense. - Aparna Bharadwaj
Muitos países globais do sul estão subindo a escada industrial de mercadorias para produtos manufaturados sofisticados. E eles estão negociando mais um com o outro, facilitando sua dependência dos mercados ocidentais. Fundamentalmente, a maioria deles é inalignada, deixando-os bem posicionados para se beneficiar da mudança de padrões comerciais globais. “As batalhas competitivas para o acesso serão intensas.”
“These are ‘swing states’ that everyone wants to do business with,” Bharadwaj says. “The competitive battles for access will be intense.”
itens de ação do CEO:
- Invista em inteligência. Ambiente global imprevisível e de evolução rápida, as cadeias de suprimentos podem ser uma fonte de vantagem e risco competitivos. Crie estratégias robustas e flexíveis para se adaptar a vários possíveis resultados políticos. Establish the capabilities and systems to track trade policy, regulatory changes, and geopolitical developments and to assess the potential vulnerabilities and opportunities they create.
- Build scenario-based decision making. In a fast-evolving, unpredictable global environment, supply chains can be both a source of competitive advantage and risk. Build robust, flexible strategies to adapt to multiple possible policy outcomes.
- Concentre -se no jogo longo. na estréia mundial de ChatGPT, Prioritize sustainable growth in rising markets with limited geopolitical constraints, including those within the Global South, while maintaining resilience in established markets.
Dynamic #2: Crunch Time for Scaling AI and GenAI
Two years on from ChatGPT’s world-storming debut, AI e Genai ainda mantém uma posição de comando no Agenda do CEO , com 75% dos executivos pesquisados pelo BCG listando-o como uma prioridade estratégica superior para 2025.
But with three out of four executives saying they have yet to realize tangible value from their AI and GenAI investments, the AI impact gap is widening. It’s crunch time for the laggards to catch up and move from potential to profit.
"Hoje você tem alto potencial de IA e um nível significativo de investimento, mas não muito valor sendo desbloqueado", diz Nicolas de Bellefonds, diretor -gerente da BCG e parceiro sênior e líder global do trabalho da empresa em tecnologia e software de AI. “O valor significativo da IA só será realizado se os CEOs se envolverem pessoalmente, porque somente eles podem alinhar a agenda da IA à agenda corporativa mais ampla.”
BCG has found, for example, that most companies are spreading their AI resources too thin by chasing too many initiatives—sometimes hundreds. “This fragments resources and you never reach a critical mass of impact,” says de Bellefonds.
De Bellefonds advises CEOs to concentrate on a handful of high-value initiatives—reshaping critical functions to drive efficiencies and inventing new products and services to build long-term competitive advantage. Companies that take this approach scale 2.3 times more AI products across the enterprise and achieve a higher ROI. (See Exhibit 1.)
It is also imperative that CEOs lead the cultural and organizational change to make AI transformations successful—including by learning about technology and using it themselves.
“AI dramatically changes how people work,” says de Bellefonds. “It is fundamentally a people transformation, which means changing behaviors and the culture across the organization.”
De Bellefonds advises CEOs follow the 10-20-70 principal: put 10% of their resources into algorithms, 20% into tech and data, and 70% into people and processes.
Finally, CEOs need to prepare for evolving AI opportunities and risks. Some 67% of executives BCG surveyed are considering autonomous agents—AI that has learned to use tools to accomplish a given task—as part of their AI transformation. Around 30% have already committed to having them play a central or complementary role.
CEOs operating across multiple geographies also need to plan for how shifting geopolitical dynamics could impact their AI value chains—including access to chips, talent, data, and data centers.
“Tech sovereignty and the partner ecosystem is a critical topic to start thinking about right now,” says de Bellefonds. “Some countries will want companies operating in their borders to use domestic cloud providers as well as AI hyperscalers, platforms, and models.”
CEO Action Items:
- Align the AI agenda with the enterprise’s and focus efforts. Concentrating on a few initiatives that build long-term competitive advantage and efficiencies and carving out a meaningful share de recursos dedicados a eles podem proporcionar um ROI mais alto.
- liderar as pessoas mudam. AI é, em sua essência, uma transformação de pessoas. Os CEOs precisam liderar a mudança cultural para incentivar os funcionários a testar e aprender e, finalmente, ser mais rápidos e mais ágeis quando aumentados pela IA. Os CEOs podem modelar esse comportamento reforçando seu próprio conhecimento de IA e sendo prático com a tecnologia. E com tensões geopolíticas aumentando, CEO que cria
- Prepare for the next value play and potential geopolitical disruptions. Early movers have already committed to having autonomous AI agents as part of their AI transformation mix. And with geopolitical tensions rising, CEO that create Um ecossistema de parceiros mais resilientes são menos propensos a ter seus esforços de IA atrapalhados por possíveis interrupções. A mudança de dinâmica política o torna ainda mais. Mas outros - principalmente os EUA - comparam prontos para reverter regulamentos ambientais e incentivos financeiros para renováveis.
Dynamic #3: The Rising Cost of Climate Inaction
Devising global business strategies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions and prepare for the consequences of a warming planet is already immensely challenging. Shifting political dynamics make it even more so.
The European Union, Japan, China, and other major economies are pressing ahead with their agendas to accelerate the green-energy transition, build scale in the associated innovation-driven industries, and achieve net zero emissions. But others—most notably the US—appear poised to roll back environmental regulations and financial incentives for renewables.
While some global companies have pulled back on public commitments made before they fully realized what it would take to fulfill them, most remain committed to building resilience and decarbonize in ways that can create value, lower costs, and meet customer expectations.
"Existe um risco de que mesmo a ação climática inteligente e criadora de valor possa se tornar uma vítima de polarização política em alguns países", adverte Wendy Woods, diretor-gerente da BCG e parceiro sênior que é vice-presidente do trabalho da empresa em clima e sustentabilidade e impacto social. “Isso pode tornar mais difícil para as empresas se alinharem com seus stakeholders sobre investimentos e estratégias de negócios para impulsionar a inovação e alcançar sua transição verde.”
Os CEOs não podem ignorar a mudança de economia e incentivos, e as políticas regionais divergentes alterarão o cálculo de curto prazo para alguns, pois eles decidirão e como investir no crescimento futuro. Independentemente do clima político, eventos climáticos graves e os riscos financeiros que eles representam continuarão a se intensificar.
If global warming stays on its current trajectory, extreme weather could place up to 25% of EBITDA at risk within the next 25 years.
BCG e o Fórum Econômico Mundial estimam que, se o aquecimento global permanecer em sua trajetória atual, o clima extremo poderá colocar até 25% do EBITDA em risco nos próximos 25 anos, especialmente em setores como agricultura, serviços públicos, construção e comunicações. Os valores dos ativos e a posição de mercado também podem se corroer nas regiões preparadas para aumentar os preços de carbono e introduzir regulamentos de emissões mais rigorosas. Como inundações catastróficas, furacões, secas e incêndios florestais continuam a se tornar mais frequentes e extremos ”, diz Woods. Por outro lado, o BCG estima sua exposição em 10% a 15% do EBITDA até 2050. (Consulte o Anexo 2.)
While physical and transition risks will vary depending on the region and industry, it is imperative that CEOs fully understand their current exposure—an area where many appear to be falling short.
“By our analysis, many companies are significantly underestimating the risks from climate change, especially as catastrophic floods, hurricanes, droughts, and wildfires continue to become more frequent and extreme,” says Woods.
For example, materials companies analyzed by BCG indicate that 1% to 7% of their EBITDA is at risk from climate-related events. By contrast, BCG estimates their exposure at 10% to 15% of EBITDA by 2050. (See Exhibit 2.)
CEO Ação itens: || 3737
- Gain a clear, comprehensive picture of climate-related risks and the cost of inaction. Extreme weather is unpredictable. CEOs should plan for a range of climate scenarios—and assess the best course for reducing their companies’ exposure to financial risk.
- Stay focused on your customers. Many companies, governments, and policymakers remain committed to lowering emissions, and customers in these markets are likely to continue favoring suppliers that help them meet their climate targets. The upshot: companies that scale back efforts to lower large carbon footprints, especially in high-emissions sectors, risk being disadvantaged in key markets and value chains.
- Work with partners. Companies can’t always rely on consistent government support for green initiatives. Working with suppliers and industry peers, however, can help companies spread the costs and risks of major investments in emerging technologies that could be major value drivers in the future.
Dynamic #4: Powering Growth with Enduring Cost Management
CEOs who struggle to keep costs in check not only risk today’s performance, but tomorrow’s as well.
Some 67% of executives surveyed by BCG say they need to reinvest cost savings into innovation and growth. That’s not the only reason cost management continues to keep CEOs up at night, though. Among C-suite executives, 40% feel unprepared to weather a market shock in 2025—perhaps because they report achieving less than half of their cost savings targets on average. Their companies also struggle to maintain efficiencies.
Paul Goydan, a BCG managing director and senior partner and leader of its accelerated cost-advantage offering, says the problem often stems from reactive belt tightening.
“Piecemeal cost-cutting measures which are rapidly forced through an organization top-down are like a crash diet. They may lead to rapid weight loss, but the weight usually comes back,” he says. “CEOs need to approach cost management like a healthy eating plan. They need to step back and rewire their operating model to fundamentally transform their organization into a lower-cost business. They also need to stick with it for 12 to 18 months after the initial savings are achieved to make it last.”
Piecemeal cost-cutting measures which are rapidly forced through an organization top-down are like a crash diet. They may lead to rapid weight loss, but the weight usually comes back. - Paul Goydan
Enquanto o gerenciamento de custos é uma prioridade entre os setores (33% dos executivos listam a redução de custos como sua prioridade mais crítica este ano, um aumento de 8 pontos percentuais em relação ao ano passado), as empresas precisam de soluções personalizadas para fortalecer sua competitividade. Por exemplo, a otimização da cadeia de suprimentos pode gerar vantagem competitiva em empresas de consumidores e industriais, enquanto o ramo de portfólios de produtos pode dar uma perna para empresas, tecnologia e empresas financeiras. “Quando a administração força os cortes de cima para baixo, você obtém apenas conformidade a curto prazo e impacto limitado.”
Regardless of industry, cost efficiency is unlikely to stick unless CEOs create a cost-conscious culture.
“When the entire workforce owns the cost agenda you achieve a lasting competitive edge,” says Goydan. “When management forces top-down cuts you only get short term compliance and limited impact.”
CEOs que modelam o comportamento consciente do custo e comunicam regularmente metas financeiras, lacunas, iniciativas, resultados e tendências de mercado têm maior probabilidade de garantir a adesão dos funcionários. Enquanto isso, os processos de governança e rastreamento podem aumentar a certeza executiva e fornecer informações para celebrar as vitórias e compartilhar contratempos-empoderar os funcionários para dar feedback em tempo real e transmitir lições valiosas. Cerca de 86% dos executivos pesquisados pelo BCG planejam investir em IA e análises avançadas para esse fim. “As empresas líderes nos anos 2030 serão as que são capazes de não apenas capturar os ganhos de eficiência, mas também aproveitar a tecnologia de novas maneiras para transformar fundamentalmente seus fluxos de trabalho e fazer uma mudança de etapa em seu desempenho.”
It is also important for senior leadership to have the resources and decision rights to implement cost-management measures. Governance and tracking processes, meanwhile, can increase executional certainty and provide insights to celebrate wins and share setbacks—empowering employees to give real-time feedback and imparting valuable lessons.
Finally, today’s investments in innovation lay the foundation for future efficiency. Some 86% of executives surveyed by BCG plan to invest in AI and advanced analytics for this purpose.
“AI is already making companies more efficient and increasing the pace of innovation,” says Goydan. “Leading companies in the 2030s will be the ones who are able to not only capture the efficiency gains but also leverage technology in new ways to fundamentally transform their workflows and make a step change in their performance.”
Itens de ação do CEO: itens de ação:
- Prioritize productivity and efficiency through disciplined cost management rather than absorbing cost pressures or passing them on to consumers, who are already fatigued by recent inflation.
- Determine what drives cost and complexity in your own business and pursue it to strengthen competitive advantage. For example, eliminating product complexity can lower structure costs and boost profits.
- Lead the cultural change around cost management to embed a cost-conscious culture at every level of the organization as well as in profit and loss. Engage employees to take an “owner mentality” to optimize initiatives.
Dynamic #5: The Need for a Unifier in Chief
Political and social polarization does not only exist in the public arena. It can spill into the workplace, undermining cohesion and threatening company performance. But CEOs can productively step into the breach by becoming a “unifier in chief” of their organizations.
“This could be a fantastic time for CEOs to make their companies a real refuge for employees seeking a haven of productive work and a feeling of agency in an environment of collaboration, civil discourse, and psychological safety,” says Judith Wallenstein, a BCG managing director and senior partner who leads the firm’s global CEO Advisory.
Recent research by the Society for Human Resources Management and other organizations show a sharp rise in incivility in US workplaces related to political differences—and also shows that such incidents significantly impact productivity. In an August 2024 survey by Indeed and Harris Poll, 34% of workers reported that political discussions were having a negative impact on team morale; nearly 40% of millennial and Gen-Z workers said they’d leave a job if their CEO expressed political views they disagree with.
To lower the temperature of discourse and help build bridges among employes with diverse views, CEOs can monitor polarizing political and social issues that could creep into their workplace and prepare strategies for addressing them. They can also promote a culture of tolerance within their company and build a framework for deciding Quando e como falar sobre questões divisivas de uma maneira que se alinhe com seus valores corporativos e objetivos de negócios.
"Respeito pelas opiniões dos outros e a manutenção da confiança e da coesão deve ser incorporada nos valores das empresas", diz Patrick Dupoux, diretor -gerente do BCG e parceiro sênior e chefe da prática de impacto social da empresa na Europa, o Médio, o Oriente Médio, a América do Sul e a África. Isso afeta seus negócios ou o bem -estar de seus funcionários. Outros tentam proibir discussões políticas no local de trabalho, embora isso geralmente seja impraticável em grandes organizações. Em vez disso, os CEOs podem promover o discurso civil e o apoio psicológico, dando aos funcionários ferramentas e treinamento para falar sobre questões que os anulavam de uma maneira que promova o respeito mútuo. Explore como vários cenários podem ser gerenciados proativamente. Promova uma cultura de tolerância e respeito por outras opiniões. Eles também podem expandir programas que ajudam a criar um senso de comunidade e contribuição para seus funcionários. A dinâmica específica da indústria e da região também entrará em jogo. Mas com as ferramentas, capacidades e mentalidade certas, os líderes podem dominar todas essas forças em 2025 e além. Inscreva -se
To mitigate the risk of polarization, many CEOs are now taking a “less is more” approach to public comments, focusing only on topics that impact their businesses or their employees’ welfare. Others try to ban political discussions in the workplace, although that’s often impractical in large organizations. Instead, CEOs can promote civil discourse and psychological support by giving employees tools and training to talk about issues that distress them in a way that fosters mutual respect.
CEO Action Items:
- Anticipate divisive issues. Identify and document emerging social, political, and geopolitical issues and their potential internal impact on your organization. Explore how various scenarios could be proactively managed.
- Align statements with the organization’s values and DNA. Senior leaders should ensure that their public positions on sensitive issues are consistent with their organization’s purpose, values, and culture, and preferably framed in terms of a business case. Promote a culture of tolerance and respect for other views.
- Take actions to promote civil discourse and conduct. Organizations can encourage civil discourse by building psychologically safe environments for employees to discuss divisive issues that distress them. They can also expand programs that help build a sense of community and contribution for their employees.
These five dynamics are not the only ones CEOs will need to navigate; industry- and region-specific dynamics will come into play as well. But with the right tools, capabilities, and mindset, leaders can master all of these forces in 2025 and beyond.
