Alice never dreamed of a world like this. The numbers tell one part of the story. Some 80 percent of the world’s people have gained mobile access in less than two decades. Smartphones already account for almost 40 percent of global mobile-phone sales, and they are increasing fast. This year, mobile access will overtake fixed-line access as the world’s primary way of going online; four out of five broadband connections will be mobile by 2015. For a large and growing share of users around the world, the Internet will be an entirely mobile experience.
This isn’t your father’s Internet, however—or even your older brother’s or sister’s. The mobile experience is a whole new universe of connectivity that’s local (it’s always where you are), personal (tailored to your needs and preferences), social (all your friends are there as well)—and it’s always on. That four- (or seven- or ten-) inch screen is much more than a digital image: it’s a real-life window into an entire world that’s open 24/7/365, just waiting for its owner to climb through. Continuous access to information, communication, friends, and entertainment—among myriad other things—turns out to be as addictive as any opiate. Just like Alice peering into the world beyond the looking glass, everyone wants to check it out—continually.
Numerosos fatores estão convergindo para fornecer aos móveis os recursos, a escala e o alcance alcançados por poucos outros avanços tecnológicos. Isso inclui dispositivos com potência de computação e memória que se aproximam de rivalizar com PCs de mesa; Cobertura de rede cada vez mais onipresente, caracterizada por conexões de dados de alta velocidade e baixa latência na rede; Tecnologia de bateria sempre aprimorada; a capacidade de aplicar "contexto" - locação e redes sociais - para gerar valor; a proliferação de sensores em dispositivos - por exemplo, várias câmeras, GPs e sensores de movimento e temperatura; e todo tipo de conectividade sem fio, incluindo Wi-Fi, LTE, Bluetooth e Communications de Field. Isso sem mencionar a funcionalidade de smartphones e tablets, semelhante à de uma faca do exército suíço e ecossistemas vibrantes de desenvolvimento de aplicativos com bases de usuários grandes e crescentes. Além disso, as comunicações "Máquina para a máquina", incluindo aplicativos de medição inteligente, o carro conectado e a casa digital conectada, estão sendo agressivamente perseguidos por muitas das principais empresas do mundo. Uma mudança demográfica é o advento de uma grande nova geração de consumidores para as economias do mundo desenvolvido: os millennials de 16 a 34 anos, que superam os baby boomers e têm um grau muito maior de sofisticação técnica, apetite pelo consumo e desejo de se conectar. Sua experiência principal com a Internet é móvel. O outro fato demográfico é que a grande maioria da população mundial vive nos mercados em desenvolvimento, onde a Internet está apenas tomando conta e onde a experiência da Internet é principalmente móvel. À medida que os próximos bilhões de consumidores ficam on-line, será através da tela de um smartphone ou telefone com recursos habilitados para a Internet. Há muito dinheiro em jogo. O agregado
Combine these factors with two demographic realities, and the full scope of mobile’s impact begins to emerge. One demographic shift is the advent of a big new generation of consumers into the economies of the developed world: the 16- to 34-year-old Millennials, who outnumber the baby boomers and have a far greater degree of technical sophistication, appetite for consumption, and desire to be connected. Their primary experience with the Internet is mobile. The other demographic fact is that the vast majority of the world’s population lives in developing markets where the Internet is just taking hold and where the Internet experience is mostly mobile. As the next billion consumers come online, it will be through the screen of an Internet-enabled smartphone or feature phone.
The realization of this scale and reach is beginning to drive new waves of innovation in companies and economies around the world. There’s big money at stake. The aggregate
All kinds of companies are participating—for example, mobile operators (seeking new sources of revenue as others plateau or decline), software developers (trying to create wealth through new applications and business models), and data and analytics companies (wanting to monetize data in new ways). The “mobile first” rallying cry has already become part of the corporate lexicon at tech giants as diverse as Google, Facebook, and IBM. It is no less relevant for those in other sectors of the economy or society. Players in traditional industries are also beginning to differentiate themselves by innovating and competing in the new mobile world. (See the sidebars on mobile’s impact in media, retail, education, and health care.)
Media Go Mobile
Japan got the mobile-media ball rolling with the first camera phone and mobile novel more than a decade ago. Streaming video followed soon after. Mobile devices are natural enablers of media consumption, and consumption has exploded since the introduction of the smartphone, starting with music, games, and user-generated content, and now extending across virtually all media categories.
Users derive enormous value from user-generated content and social media, which are available only online, of course, and increasingly accessed through mobile devices. Nearly two-thirds of Facebook’s one billion members regularly use Facebook on their mobile phones, and more than 60 percent of Twitter users are tracking tweets (as well as tweeting) on mobile devices. ComScore reports that the average number of Instagram’s daily mobile visitors jumped from 886,000 to 7.3 million between March and August 2012. There are more than 300 million microbloggers in China.
Jogos se tornaram um fenômeno online - e não apenas para jovens. Somente nos EUA, existem 100 milhões de jogadores móveis (quase um terço da população) e as pessoas passam quase oito horas por mês jogando jogos em seus telefones celulares. Como CEO da King.com, a empresa por trás do atual jogo de melhores no Facebook - Candy Crush Saga - Toold Forbes.com, "À medida que os smartphones ficam melhores e mais consumidores estão optando por usar seus celulares e tablets para acessar jogos, sua expectativa é acessar em qualquer lugar". Uma pesquisa de 2012 do desenvolvedor de jogos Popcap constatou que 44 % dos adultos nos EUA e no Reino Unido jogaram pelo menos um jogo para celular no mês anterior-um aumento de 29 % em relação a 2011.
Smartphones é o terceiro dispositivo mais popular para ouvir música. As vendas de música gravada aumentaram em 2012 pela primeira vez desde 1999, impulsionadas em grande parte por downloads, que compreendem cerca de 70 % das receitas. Aproximadamente metade dos leitores do New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and USA Today read these newspapers online or on a mobile device, according to the Pew Research Center. Other media categories are experiencing the mobile migration as well—and not always to the detriment of incumbent players. Amazon reports that eBooks are now a billion-dollar category worldwide for the company. In the U.S., Nielsen reports that mobile-connected moviegoers spend more, consume more content, and are more actively engaged in the moviegoing process. Tablet-owning moviegoers spend 35 percent more on entertainment monthly than the average U.S. consumer.
Recent BCG research found that the perceived value of online media increases with rising device ownership, jumping 41 percent when people start using a second connected device, which is often their first mobile device. (See the exhibit below.)
Argumentamos recentemente que, apesar da interrupção manifesta, a indústria da mídia parece preparada para entrar em outra era de ouro. (Ver Siga o excedente: como os consumidores dos EUA valorizam a mídia on -line, BCG Focus, February 2013.) This one, like its predecessors, is being led by new technology and new possibilities that consumers enthusiastically embrace. Mobile is already a driving force behind this transition.
As Alice discovered when she stepped through the looking glass, the world behind the digital screen is different. Most companies do not yet have all the capabilities they need to engage customers and employees. The first step is to assess their readiness by putting their businesses through a mobile health check, including a view of their ability to compete in the diverse mobile ecosystems taking root in different economies. Success will likely follow a very different path in Japan or China than in the United States. It almost certainly will in India or Africa.
Este relatório explora o desenvolvimento móvel em várias regiões e setores econômicos. Argumentamos que, embora nenhum de nós possa dizer com especificidade em que o celular está indo, o efeito agregado - technológico, social e econômico - é tal que empresas e governos não têm opção a não ser adotá -lo. Oferecemos algumas reflexões sobre como fazer isso.
