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As portas do Oriente Médio continuarão a ter sucesso?

por Giovanni Moscatelli, Francois-Xavier Delenclos, Abhinand madireddy, Alexander Rasmussen, Ulrik Sanders e CAMILLE EGLOFF
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Portos do Oriente Médio tiveram sucesso ao criar infraestrutura de alta qualidade para servir os grandes volumes de carga que fluem através da região. Para manter o momento, agora é hora das partes interessadas do porto recuarem e refletirem mais estrategicamente sobre seus próximos movimentos. Essa participação desproporcional é o resultado de vantagens geográficas e investimentos bem executados. As portas estão localizadas no cruzamento de várias rotas comerciais e servem como hubs para outras portas da região e além. Nos anos desde a crise financeira global, os portos do Oriente Médio investiram na capacidade de construção de lidar com fluxos de carga na rota comercial do Extremo Oriente -Europa (a rota mais movimentada ou mais movimentada do mundo para muitos tipos de carga), bem como em rotas menores. Grandes portas, em particular, desenvolveram infraestrutura impressionante para sua escala e a tecnologia implantada. Vários grupos portuários se transformaram em organizações respeitadas na região e globalmente, com a capacidade de competir contra o melhor do mundo.

Although the Middle East accounts for less than 3% of global GDP, its ports handle approximately 20% of global seaborne trade. This disproportionate share is the result of both geographic advantages and well-executed investments. The ports are located at the intersection of several trade routes and serve as hubs for other ports in the region and beyond. In the years since the global financial crisis, Middle Eastern ports have invested in building capacity to handle cargo flows on the Far East–Europe trade route (the world’s busiest or second busiest route for many cargo types), as well as on smaller routes. Large ports, in particular, have developed infrastructure that is impressive for both its scale and the technology deployed. Several port groups have developed into organizations respected in the region and globally, with the ability to compete against the world’s best.

Mas, como costuma ser o caso após um período de forte crescimento, há causas de preocupação. O excesso de capacidade, a exposição ao transbordo e a produtividade do porto atrasado ameaçam diminuir ou até reverter a trajetória ascendente das portas da região. Os acionistas do porto devem concentrar seus investimentos no desenvolvimento de conexões do interior, em vez de construir mais capacidade. Os operadores de portas devem procurar capturar mais negócios de clientes existentes e em potencial e buscar melhorias e digitalização da produtividade. As autoridades públicas devem continuar seus esforços para criar um ambiente de negócios favorável para os portos e promover o desenvolvimento industrial para o benefício das economias nacionais e regionais. De 2011 a 2016, a taxa de crescimento anual composta da taxa de transferência de contêineres foi de 4%, o que excedeu a média global. (Veja o Anexo 1.) As taxas de crescimento da taxa de transferência de outros tipos de carga marítima também foram impressionantes. Mas as portas do Oriente Médio enfrentam três ameaças iminentes ao seu sucesso contínuo. De 2011 a 2016, a capacidade de contêiner aumentou 16 milhões de unidades equivalentes de 20 pés (TEU). Isso representou uma taxa de crescimento anual de aproximadamente 7%, contra 4% para a taxa de transferência de contêineres. A capacidade adicional fez com que a utilização nas portas caísse 9 pontos percentuais, de 75% a 66%. (Veja o Anexo 2.) Essa taxa de utilização é geralmente considerada baixa e coloca a pressão para baixo nas taxas de manuseio. Em alguns locais, o nível de excesso de capacidade é grave. A menos que o crescimento acelere significativamente, não parece que a capacidade adicional será necessária para o futuro próximo. Por fim, a sobrecapacidade levará a um retorno mais baixo sobre o capital do que o esperado dos investimentos em infraestrutura portuária. Os portos anunciaram planos de adicionar capacidade, totalizando aproximadamente 57 milhões de TEU até 2030, dobrando assim o nível atual. Somente até 2022, assumindo que o recente crescimento do rendimento continue, a nova capacidade reduzirá a utilização em mais de 8 pontos percentuais, para aproximadamente 57%. É improvável que as portas construam todas as adições anunciadas. Eles podem reavaliar seus planos se os volumes esperados não se concretizarem ou se não terem o financiamento necessário para criar o valor total anunciado. Mesmo assim, as adições propostas são impressionantes para considerar.

Through our work supporting ports in the Middle East and globally, we have identified a number of strategic priorities and levers that can help port stakeholders sustain strong performance. Port shareholders should focus their investments on developing hinterland connections rather than on building more capacity. Port operators should seek to capture more business from existing and potential customers and pursue productivity improvements and digitization. Public authorities should continue their efforts to create a favorable business environment for ports and promote industrial development for the benefit of national and regional economies.

Strong Growth but Threats Are Looming

For many Middle Eastern ports, the region’s favorable economic climate since the global financial crisis has helped fuel good performance in terms of both volume served and financial returns. From 2011 through 2016, the compound annual growth rate of container throughput was 4%, which exceeded the global average. (See Exhibit 1.) The throughput growth rates of other types of seaborne cargo have also been impressive. But Middle Eastern ports face three looming threats to their continued success.

Rising Overcapacity. Middle Eastern ports have aggressively added capacity. From 2011 through 2016, container capacity increased by 16 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEU). This represented an annual growth rate of approximately 7%, versus 4% for container throughput. The additional capacity caused utilization at ports to fall by 9 percentage points, from 75% to 66%. (See Exhibit 2.) This utilization rate is generally considered low and puts downward pressure on handling rates. In some locations, the level of overcapacity is severe. Unless growth accelerates significantly, it does not appear that additional capacity will be required for the foreseeable future. Ultimately, the overcapacity will lead to a lower return on capital than is normally expected from port infrastructure investments.

Despite already low utilization, Middle Eastern ports show no signs of holding back on further investments in capacity. Ports have announced plans to add capacity totaling approximately 57 million TEU by 2030, thereby doubling the current level. By 2022 alone, assuming the recent throughput growth continues, the new capacity will drive down utilization by more than 8 percentage points, to approximately 57%. It is unlikely that ports will build all the announced additions. They may reassess their plans if expected volumes fail to materialize or if they lack the financing necessary to build the full amount announced. Even so, the proposed additions are staggering to consider.

Alta exposição ao transbordo. Nos portos dos Emirados Árabes Unidos (Emirados Árabes Unidos) e Omã, o transbordo representa a parcela de utilização do leão. Um grande volume da carga transhipado é destinado a portas em outros países da região e fora da região. Eles também aspiram a lidar com mais carga de transbordo. Este ano viu vários exemplos de alto perfil de portas de destino, tomando essas medidas para combater o domínio dos hubs de transbordo. As portas de destino também podem se beneficiar de alterações regulatórias que lhes permitam receber fluxos de carga direta, reduzindo assim sua dependência dos centros de transbordo. Mesmo em níveis constantes de comércio, a utilização geral cairá acentuadamente. Para calcular a taxa de transferência, os recipientes transhipados são contados várias vezes (porque são carregados de transportadores oceânicos e depois carregados em vasos menores para descarga nas portas de destino). A diminuição do volume de transbordo eliminaria muitas dessas transferências. Considerando as etapas já tomadas pelas portas de destino da região, estimamos que 10% a 20% dos volumes de transbordo podem se tornar volumes de destinação direta até 2022. Se esse turno ocorreu, a utilização geral dos portos do Oriente Médio seria de aproximadamente 14 a 20 pontos percentuais inferiores aos de 2016. Transshipment accounts for more than half (53%) of the throughput of Middle Eastern ports. At ports in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Oman, transshipment represents the lion’s share of utilization. A large volume of the transshipped cargo is destined for ports in other countries within the region and outside the region.

To end their dependence on transshipment hubs, smaller destination ports (which serve as import-export gateways for their own hinterlands) are improving infrastructure, hiring experienced port operators, and encouraging shipping lines to make direct calls. They also aspire to handle more transshipment cargo. This year has seen several high-profile examples of destination ports taking such steps to counter the dominance of transshipment hubs. Destination ports may also benefit from regulatory changes that enable them to receive direct cargo flows, thereby reducing their dependence on transshipment hubs.

If smaller destination ports succeed in attracting large volumes of direct calls, the current model of serving the entire region with a few transshipment hubs will be threatened. Even at constant levels of trade, overall utilization will fall sharply. To calculate throughput, transshipped containers are counted multiple times (because they are loaded off of ocean carriers and then loaded onto smaller vessels for discharge at destination ports). Decreasing transshipment volume would eliminate many of these transfers. Considering the steps already taken by the region’s destination ports, we estimate that 10% to 20% of transshipment volumes could become direct-destination volumes by 2022. If such a shift occurred, the overall utilization of Middle Eastern ports would be approximately 14 to 20 percentage points lower than in 2016. (See Exhibit 3.)

Produtividade da porta atrasada. Isso não é inesperado, uma vez que muitos dos mais novos jogadores ainda estão em um estágio inicial de desenvolvimento. Como essas portas estão ocupadas trazendo nova capacidade on -line, comissionando guindastes maiores e instalando novos sistemas operacionais, eles não se concentraram em melhorar a produtividade. Os custos de unidade relativamente baixos da região tornaram a otimização de custos menos prioritária do que em outros locais. Instalações e conexões de interior. Por exemplo, as autoridades públicas geralmente são acionistas de portos e operadores de portos. Mas as distinções ainda são valiosas ao considerar os tipos de movimentos que manterão o impulso. (Consulte o Anexo 4.) Empirical evidence suggests that, except for the most successful and established players, productivity is lagging at a number of Middle Eastern ports. This is not unexpected given that many of the newest players are still at an early stage of development. Because these ports have been busy bringing new capacity online, commissioning larger cranes, and installing new operating systems, they have not focused on improving productivity. The region’s relatively low unit costs for labor have made cost optimization less of a priority than in other locations.

Each Stakeholder Has a Role to Play

To provide a framework for exploring the actions required to avert these threats, we differentiate among three types of stakeholder:

In the Middle East, the distinctions among these roles can be blurry. For example, public authorities are often shareholders of both ports and port operators. But the distinctions are still valuable when considering the types of moves that will maintain momentum. (See Exhibit 4.)

Acionistas do porto de porto de porto, que são mais cautadores sobre os acionistas do porto. Nenhum plano de investimento para nova capacidade deve ser aprovado, a menos que identifique os volumes específicos a serem atendidos. Para evitar um jogo de soma zero de movimentos retaliatórios, os acionistas do porto devem abster-se de investir em uma nova capacidade destinada a capturar volumes atualmente tratados por portos próximos. Em vez disso, eles devem procurar estender o alcance de seu porto investindo em conexões e instalações interiores adaptadas aos clientes que atualmente atendem. Os acionistas que possuem recursos para investimentos adicionais devem considerar a diversificação por meio de fusões e aquisições ou projetos de desenvolvimento fora da região.

In the context of deteriorating utilization, port shareholders should be cautious about investing in additional capacity. No investment plan for new capacity should be approved unless it identifies the specific volumes to be served. To avoid a zero-sum game of retaliatory moves, port shareholders should refrain from investing in new capacity intended to capture volumes currently handled by nearby ports. Instead, they should seek to extend their port’s reach by investing in inland connections and facilities tailored to the customers they currently serve. Shareholders that have resources for further investments should consider diversifying through M&A or development projects outside the region.

To create additional capacity, port operators should favor productivity gains over capex.

Aprimore as conexões interiores. A conectividade interior aprimorada-incluindo serviços de logística, transporte e armazenamento-permite uma porta para estender seu alcance além da área imediata que serve e aumentar sua participação nos fluxos de carga de ponta a ponta. Por exemplo, os portos em todo o mundo estão capturando maior valor de seus locais estratégicos, investindo em serviços de transporte ferroviário e rodoviário. Um porto marítimo investiu em atualizações em uma rede ferroviária existente, a fim de servir melhor os clientes nos países vizinhos. E em um exemplo de inovação da indústria de frete aéreo, um aeroporto lançou um serviço de transporte rodoviário para capturar volumes de aeroportos mais próximos da origem de cargas individuais. O serviço inclui a coleta de pacotes e a consolidação do interior, criando eficiências para os clientes. As economias nacionais interconectadas da região e curtas distâncias entre os portos e os principais mercados do interior criam muitas dessas oportunidades. Por exemplo, a Arábia Saudita pode ser servida a partir de vários gateways, as portas da Jordânia podem servir o Iraque e as portas em Omã podem servir o Iêmen ou os Emirados Árabes Unidos através de conexões interiores que evitam a necessidade de navegar pelo Estreito de Hormuz. É mais difícil para os clientes de grande volume trocarem de portas (criando "viscosidade"). Os exemplos incluem co-investimento na construção de instalações de roll-on/roll-off para inspeções de pré-entrelista de automóveis, ou de centros de distribuição ou armazéns controlados por temperatura para produtos de alimentos e bebidas. Dada a prevalência de empresas de petróleo e gás na região, os portos devem considerar a segmentação de indústrias a jusante relacionadas, como plásticos e petroquímicos, através de armazéns dedicados e estações de frete de contêineres (onde os contêineres são embalados e descompactados). Tais instalações serão vitais para reter os clientes à medida que a concorrência aumenta entre as portas de destino. Shareholders can promote a higher volume of destination calls by investing to enhance connections between the port and inland business hubs and population centers. Improved inland connectivity—including logistics services, transportation, and warehousing—allows a port to extend its reach beyond the immediate area it serves and increase its participation in end-to-end cargo flows. For example, ports around the world are capturing greater value from their strategic locations by investing in rail and road transport services. One seaport has invested in upgrades to an existing railway network in order to better serve customers in neighboring landlocked countries. And in an example of innovation from the air freight industry, an airport has launched a road transport service to capture volumes from airports closer to the origin of individual cargos. The service includes package collection and inland consolidation, creating efficiencies for customers.

Although such inland connectivity solutions are generally regarded as having lower margins than port handling operations, they are worth considering on a case-by-case basis in the Middle East. The region’s interconnected national economies and short distances between ports and major inland markets create many such opportunities. For example, Saudi Arabia can be served from multiple gateways, ports in Jordan can serve Iraq, and ports in Oman can serve Yemen or the UAE through inland connections that obviate the need to sail through the Strait of Hormuz.

Invest for and with customers. By investing to support importers and exporters, port shareholders can solidify existing volumes and make it harder for large-volume customers to switch ports (creating “stickiness”). Examples include co-investing in the construction of roll-on/roll-off facilities for predelivery inspections of automobiles, or of distribution centers or temperature-controlled warehouses for food and beverage products. Given the prevalence of oil and gas companies in the region, ports should consider targeting related downstream industries, such as plastics and petrochemicals, through dedicated warehouses and container freight stations (where containers are packed and unpacked). Such facilities will be vital to retaining customers as competition increases among destination ports.

Considere fusões e aquisições internacionais e expansão. No entanto, dado que essas oportunidades são raras no Oriente Médio, os acionistas do porto com apetite por investimentos adicionais no setor de portos devem considerar a diversificação por meio de fusões e aquisições internacionais e expansão. As vantagens incluem: In general, investors should pursue local M&A opportunities, which offer many ways to create synergies. However, given that such opportunities are rare in the Middle East, port shareholders with an appetite for additional investments in the ports sector should consider diversifying through international M&A as well as expansion. The advantages include:

operadores de porta

Os operadores de porta devem obter uma compreensão profunda dos fluxos de carga de ponta a ponta servidos por suas portas e como elas podem agregar valor dentro desses fluxos. Para criar capacidade adicional, eles devem favorecer os ganhos de produtividade sobre o CAPEX, com ênfase na implantação de tecnologias de "porta inteligente". A melhor maneira de começar é realizar uma avaliação completa dos fluxos de carga de ponta a ponta servidos pelo porto, bem como os fluxos que ele poderia servir no futuro. (Consulte o Anexo 5.) Ao obter uma compreensão profunda do mercado endereçável para negócios adicionais do seu interior, os operadores podem determinar a estratégia vencedora para o contexto local. Esta avaliação é essencial para o desenvolvimento de uma proposta de valor competitiva e possivelmente distinta para servir portadoras e remetentes. Ele também requer um nível maior de intimidade do cliente do que os operadores de portas estão necessariamente acostumados, tendo geralmente enfatizado maior em atrair e manter portadores oceânicos. Uma avaliação completa do mercado endereçável abrange uma ampla variedade de tópicos:

Thoroughly assess the addressable market. Port operators should seek to increase their share of wallet from the shippers they serve today, and they should target new business while avoiding head-to-head competition on handling rates. The best way to start is to conduct a thorough assessment of the end-to-end cargo flows served by the port, as well as the flows it could potentially serve in the future. (See Exhibit 5.) By gaining a deep understanding of the addressable market for additional business from their extended hinterland, operators can determine the winning strategy for their local context. This assessment is essential to developing a competitive, and possibly distinctive, value proposition for serving carriers and shippers.

Achieving such a detailed understanding of markets and customers is time consuming. It also requires a greater level of customer intimacy than port operators are necessarily accustomed to, having generally placed a greater emphasis on attracting and retaining ocean carriers. A thorough assessment of the addressable market covers a wide variety of topics:

Ao adotar tecnologias inteligentes, os portos do Oriente Médio podem, a custo limitado, demonstrar liderança global nas linhas de remessa.

A CASE STUDY OF HINTERLAND LOGISTICS: THE US MIDWEST

A CASE STUDY OF HINTERLAND LOGISTICS: THE US MIDWEST

The US Midwest offers an analogy to landlocked regions in the Middle East. Seaborne cargo can reach the Midwest by a variety of routes:

  • Serviço transpacífico para portas da Califórnia, com transporte ferroviário para destinos do Centro -Oeste
  • Transpacific service to Canadian ports, with rail transportation to Midwestern destinations
  • Transpacific service to Gulf of Mexico ports (via the Panama Canal), with river or road transportation to Midwestern destinations
  • Serviço transatlântico para grandes portos da costa leste, com transporte de estradas ou ferrovias para destinos do Centro -Oeste

Which routes will gain share is driven by multiple dynamic factors. For example, the emergence of large ships mostly deployed on Far East–Europe routes favors East Coast ports as the gateway to the Midwest. These routes have lower slot costs from, for example, Shanghai to Chicago, despite having a much longer sea-faring distance than a transpacific connection to California ports. Among the many other factors are the network organization of shipping lines, the availability of port capacity, transshipment regulations, the ease of customs procedures, the expansion and tariff structure of the Panama Canal, and other regulatory issues.

Port operators should use the assessment’s results to determine how their shareholders can invest wisely. After identifying the best investment opportunities, they can prepare a business case for shareholders to approve.

Improve productivity. Even in the context of ongoing growth and stable financial performance, port operators’ long-term success requires optimizing operational performance, reducing waste in key processes, and preserving resources. In the face of declining utilization, it is especially critical for port operators to favor productivity improvement initiatives over investments to add capacity. Our work around the world shows that productivity improvements can significantly and sustainably increase capacity. In a recent project at a global port operator, we found instances in which optimized processes could increase capacity by up to 20%. The returns on the modest investments required to raise productivity can greatly exceed those generated by the capex-heavy investments necessary to construct berths and terminals. Productivity improvements can also create capacity more quickly.

To decide which initiatives to pursue, port operators should analyze the bottlenecks that are decreasing port productivity. This analysis can serve as the basis for designing processes that improve key metrics, such as productivity per berth.

Implemente tecnologias digitais. As tecnologias digitais de portas inteligentes tornam as portas e seus parceiros mais produtivos e competitivos, aprimorando as operações existentes sem as principais atualizações de infraestrutura. Como essas soluções geralmente requerem capex baixo, elas têm curtos tempos de retorno. Por outro lado, os sistemas tradicionais de automação portuária geralmente exigem investimentos muito grandes e não demonstraram a capacidade de aumentar os níveis de produtividade. As portas devem usar uma abordagem estruturada para selecionar dentre as muitas oportunidades de investimento tecnológico e digital. (Veja Progressive ports around the world are embracing digital breakthroughs such as connected platforms, cloud-based services, mobile devices and apps, sensors, autonomous transportation, and big data solutions. Digital smart-port technologies make ports and their partners more productive and competitive by enhancing existing operations without major infrastructure upgrades. Because these solutions generally require low capex, they have short payback times. In contrast, traditional port automation systems often require very large investments, and they have not demonstrated the ability to raise productivity levels.

By adopting smart technologies, Middle Eastern ports can, at limited cost, capture these benefits and demonstrate global leadership to shipping lines. Ports should use a structured approach to selecting from among the many technological and digital investment opportunities. (See  Para ficar inteligente, as portas são digitais , BCG Focus, março de 2018.) Aqui estão alguns exemplos de aplicativos a serem considerados:

Public Authorities

By promoting a favorable business environment and industrial development, port authorities create benefits for ports over the long and short terms.

Industrialization projects undertaken by public authorities can significantly improve the business environment for nearby ports. The creation of new urban areas and large industrial developments may provide them with unique opportunities. Examples include large projects such as NEOM, a new city and economic zone planned for northwest Saudi Arabia that is expected to transform many sectors of the national economy. Additionally, smaller-scale industrial expansion projects are creating tangible, shorter-term opportunities. Examples include the Al Khabra phosphate mining and processing project for Ma’aden, the Saudi Arabian mining company; the expansion of the Emirates Aluminum train in the UAE; and the Liwa Plastics Industries Complex developed by Orpic, Oman’s national refining and petrochemicals company. These projects generate bulk import flows (such as for bauxite or feedstock) as well as container export flows (such as for ingots or plastics).

In addition to targeted industrial expansion projects, public authorities can promote employment and economic benefits by creating the right environment to attract light-manufacturing and logistics facilities in and around port areas. Examples include food-processing units, bottling plants, facilities for bagging bulk cargo, and facilities for import processing and predelivery inspection of new cars. Initiatives to attract such facilities are conceived as part of a wider economic development agenda and do not focus on promoting particular business interests. However, regardless of their broader objectives or even their size, some may generate substantial cargo volumes and port revenues.

The Middle East has many examples of the successful development of free zones or industrial parks. The largest and most successful is the well-known Jebel Ali Free Zone, which is home to more than 100 Fortune 500 companies. In pursuing new projects, public authorities should establish both hard infrastructure (such as well-maintained roads and telecommunications networks) and soft infrastructure (such as a hassle-free environment for doing business and effective customs processes). In our experience with such projects, we have found that there tends to be a strong focus on hard infrastructure, while soft infrastructure is often neglected.



Middle Eastern ports have built world-class facilities and earned the respect of port and shipping industry participants globally. To solidify these achievements, they must focus on making the right moves going forward. In an environment of declining utilization, success requires capturing more business opportunities, not constructing more berths and terminals. Building hinterland connections, strengthening customer relationships, adopting digital solutions, and fostering a robust business environment are among the ways that port stakeholders can maintain momentum. Success will promote prosperity not only for the ports themselves, but for the entire region.

Authors

Managing Director & Senior Partner

Giovanni Moscatelli

Diretor Gerente e Parceiro Sênior
Dubai

Alumnus

Francois-Xavier Delenclos

Alumnus

Alumnus

Abhinand Madireddy

Alumnus

Alumnus

Alexander Rasmussen

Alumnus

Diretor Gerente e Parceiro Sênior

Ulrik Sanders

Diretor Gerente e Parceiro Sênior
Copenhague

Diretor Gerente e Parceiro Sênior

= Camille Egloff

Diretor Gerente e Parceiro Sênior
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