Ao construir uma vantagem competitiva durável em uma tecnologia emergente, que os players de clima, que podem ter um grande mercado global e o clima e o clima que os jogadores podem desbloquear um grande mercado global. As tecnologias limpas necessárias para entregar um mundo descarbonizado. Como líder de energia e tecnologia, os EUA estão bem posicionados para se tornar um participante dominante nessas tecnologias. Mas deve se basear em seus pontos fortes existentes e usar ações e investimentos políticos direcionados para criar uma vantagem competitiva durável nos mercados globais de tecnologia limpa.
Tackling the climate crisis is both a global imperative, and a huge opportunity for countries and organizations that can produce the clean technologies needed to deliver a decarbonized world. As an energy and technology leader, the US is well positioned to become a dominant player in these technologies. But it must build on its existing strengths and use targeted policy actions and investments to create a durable competitive advantage in global clean-tech markets.
Identificamos seis tecnologias que têm o potencial de desempenhar um papel importante no Transição energética e que existem em áreas em que os EUA podem construir ou manter essa vantagem-que é muito mais duradoura do que aqueles que são possível por motoristas de curto prazo, como incentivos sozinhos.
As seis tecnologias em questão-veículos elétricos, aço limpo, hidrogênio de baixo carbono, armazenamento de energia de longa duração, captura direta de ar e reatores modulares nucleares avançados-representam uma oportunidade significativa de mercado para empresas americanas. Em Potencial para a competitividade dos EUA em tecnologias limpas emergentes, um estudo de BCG encomendado pela energia inovadora e pela terceira maneira, estimamos que os jogadores dos EUA possam desfrutar de um mercado doméstico cumulativo nessas tecnologias que custam US $ 9 a US $ 9555. vantagem competitiva que lhes confere uma posição de liderança nos mercados globais. Estimamos que o mercado endereçável (SAM) para empresas americanas nas seis tecnologias - que abrange todos os países onde as exportações dos EUA são possíveis - podem valer US $ 60 trilhões a 2050 em segmentos de valor de valor que o mundos de que o mundos não foram desenvolvidos. As perspectivas da IEA, que se baseiam na premissa de que os governos cumprirão seus compromissos atuais de redução de emissões a tempo e no prazo. Mas se a comunidade global alcançar emissões líquidas zero em meados do século, o número para cada tecnologia poderá aumentar significativamente. Por exemplo, o SAM cumulativo em segmentos de cadeia de valor priorizado para veículos elétricos pode aumentar de US $ 46 trilhões para US $ 75 trilhões (ver Anexo 1.)
However, US players stand to gain far more by developing a competitive edge that gives them a leading position in global markets. We estimate that the cumulative global serviceable addressable market (SAM) for US companies in the six technologies—which encompasses all countries where US exports are possible—could be worth a staggering $60 trillion through 2050 in prioritized value chain segments.
Our estimates assume that the world will follow the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) developed by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the most likely of three IEA outlooks, which builds on the premise that governments will meet their current emissions reduction commitments in full and on time. But if the global community achieves net zero emissions by mid-century, the figure for each technology could rise significantly. For example, the cumulative SAM in prioritized value chain segments for electric vehicles could increase from $46 trillion to $75 trillion (See Exhibit 1.)
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Recent legislative steps, particularly the adoption of the Inflation Reduction Act and its $369 billion of climate-related provisions, give us confidence that the US is on the right track. So does the country’s history of innovation and investment in scaling clean technology, its dynamic private sector, and its strong R&D base. But policymakers and other stakeholders must take further action to unlock flourishing domestic and international markets for US companies in these technologies and create a durable competitive advantage for the US ahead of other players.
A Snapshot of the US’s Current Position
Achieving a leading position in these six technologies would enable the US to develop export sales worth an estimated $330 billion in annual value in 2050—more than the approximately $200 billion in value of US fossil-fuel-related exports in 2021—and to create new jobs. In addition, if adopted at scale by 2050, these six technologies could enable approximately 20 gigatons per year in global emissions abatement as the world moves toward a net zero economy.
Here is a summary of the US’s current position, along with future challenges and opportunities, in these important technologies.
Electric Vehicles (EVs). Electric cars offer the largest global market opportunity for US companies among the six technologies. EVs are set become the fastest-growing segment of the automotive market, and US players are in pole position to serve the domestic market and to capture market share abroad. Legacy automakers in the US are rapidly transitioning from internal combustion engines to electrified powertrains. Meanwhile, US technology startups are leading the way in cutting-edge areas, such as autonomous cars and smart, connected vehicles. Legacy players must address two key challenges: ensuring that supply chains for batteries and battery materials are adequate, and retraining existing workforces in the skills necessary for the new age of electrified mobility.
Clean Steel. The US is among the world’s lowest-carbon-intensity producers of steel. US steelmakers have strong in-house capabilities in building, operating, and maintaining mini mills that use electric arc furnaces and direct reduced iron or scrap to make clean steel. Major opportunities exist in selling clean steel and in developing new technologies such as molten oxide electrolysis. In addition, the US can cement its position as a low-carbon steel producer through further deployment of renewable power generation. Wider adoption of carbon border adjustment mechanisms—which would create greater price parity between clean and traditional steel products and protect US players from higher-carbon imports—would also support the development of a strong domestic clean-steel industry.
Low-Carbon Hydrogen (H 2). Os EUA podem assumir uma posição de liderança no mercado de baixo carbono H 2, incluindo ambos verdes H2 (produced using renewable energy and electrolysis) and blue H2 (produced using natural gas and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) to sequester CO2 emissions), because of the country’s abundant renewable energy resources, Gás natural Recursos e tecnologia CCUS e infraestrutura relacionada. Para vencer em verde h 2, however, the US will need to quickly reduce costs through economies of scale and R&D so that it remains competitive with other parts of the world. And to win in blue H 2, os EUA precisarão de maior alinhamento internacional sobre o que constitui zero e baixo carbono H 2, determined through life-cycle analysis, in order for European export markets to open to US-made blue H2. In addition, investment in innovative transportation and storage technologies, such as liquid organic hydrogen carriers, can strengthen the US’s market position.
Long-Duration Energy Storage (LDES). Electrochemical LDES comprises a set of nascent storage technologies that could permit higher penetration of intermittent renewable energy resources, such as wind and solar, into electricity systems. The US has a greater need than most countries for LDES solutions because of its aging transmission grid infrastructure and its decarbonization goals. Building a domestic LDES industry will support the achievement of those goals. Mastering the advanced manufacturing processes required to efficiently make battery modules at scale would enable US companies to create a long-term competitive advantage that can drive exports.
Direct Air Capture (DAC). The US is well placed to lead technology developments in DAC, the direct capture of carbon from the atmosphere, thanks to its expertise and storage potential. To build a competitive advantage, the US needs to rapidly create scale to drive down costs and secure international agreements in areas including carbon offsets. Notably, the global market opportunity in DAC would increase fourfold—greater than any of the other technologies—if the world were to achieve the IEA’s NZE scenario, rather than its APS. There are also opportunities to support oil and gas workers during the energy transition by locating DAC facilities near oil wells and upskilling the labor force.
Advanced Nuclear Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). SMRs can provide zero-carbon power generation with lower costs and greater safety than traditional reactors can. The US is the global leader in SMR-related patents. However, market potential is limited by the fact that a handful of countries dominate uranium mining, with Russia alone owning nearly half of all enrichment capacity. The US should consider building its own fuel production capacity by sourcing uranium from trusted allies, notably Australia and Canada. By doing so, the US can reap energy and national security benefits and enjoy a reliable source of green power.
Varying Market Opportunity Along the Value Chain
We believe that the US should target investment and growth initiatives in the value chain segments of these technologies that provide the greatest potential for building and protecting a competitive edge. Although the sizes of individual segments vary by technology, our analysis indicates that in general the original equipment manufacturing (OEM), after-sales services, and offtake segments stand out (Offtake involves the sale of final products such as H2 molecules and steel.) US companies can also use their R&D prowess across the value chains of all six technologies to create innovations that transform how the technologies operate. (See Exhibit 2.)
For example, electric cars will require new batteries with different inputs to reduce the industry’s reliance on scarce raw materials. In steel making, opportunities exist to create clean steel more efficiently. The DAC sector needs more effective and lower-cost sorbent technologies. And in low-carbon H 2, há espaço para desenvolver e ampliar eletrolisadores que podem funcionar bem sem metais raros.
ainda, se fortes mercados globais para muitas das tecnologias que examinamos forem para surgir, acordos internacionais sobre regulamentos e padrões são cruciais. Como mencionado acima, a falta de consenso sobre os padrões de compensação de carbono está impedindo o mercado do DAC. O acordo com o Canadá e o México sobre os padrões de intensidade de emissões para o aço limpo é essencial se os EUA forem capturar a maior parte do mercado do mercado de aço limpo norte-americano. Enquanto isso, o foco da União Europeia em baixo carbono H2 made from renewable energy threatens to shut out US producers of blue H2.
Key Enablers to Create Competitive Advantage
In addition to success with international agreements, several enabling factors may support US players as they seek to build a durable competitive advantage in our six technologies. These include demand-side factors, which can create a more favorable demand environment, and supply-side factors, which can help companies become more competitive by encouraging greater investment and economies of scale in manufacturing and can allow them to maintain a lead in product quality through R&D.
On the demand side, for example, players can increase market demand by reducing or removing the extra cost of choosing a clean technology over a conventional option or by increasing deployment volumes through government-directed procurement plans and targets. On the supply side, players can remove barriers to deployment by de-risking project investments and improving access to capital. (See Exhibit 3.)
A colocar esses facilitadores no lugar exigirá ações dos fabricantes de políticas e do setor privado. Juntos, esses players devem criar propostas de políticas e planos de investimento bem elaborados que criam suporte no mercado interno e nos principais mercados de exportação. Ao fazer isso, eles permitirão que os EUA construam uma vantagem competitiva altamente valiosa e se tornem um jogador dominante em tecnologias que possam ajudar a evitar o pior Impactos das mudanças climáticas enquanto também aumenta a economia dos EUA.
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