Uma temporada diferente de compras de férias
Para os varejistas nos Estados Unidos, a alegria do feriado estará presente, mas medida para 2024. É um tipo diferente de ano. Por um lado, os sinais apontam para fortes gastos com consumidores; No entanto, por outro lado, existem fatores que adicionarão algumas reviravoltas ao calendário deste ano. Embora os consumidores tenham dividido a atenção nos próximos meses, os varejistas de todos os canais devem preparar o trenó, porque as condições exigem um passeio rápido e emocionante quando as compras começam.
Os gastos aumentarão, mas modestamente
BCG’s 2024 Holiday Outlook Survey gathered insights from US consumers and credit card data. The growth outlook is mixed. While just over a quarter of consumers (28%) plan to spend more than they did last year, just over a quarter (27%) plan to spend less—and just under half (45%) plan to spend the same. Several factors play a role in this modest growth outlook. On one hand, real consumption has continued to grow in the post-pandemic era, and American household incomes and balance sheets are strong relative to historical levels. Moreover, both job growth and income growth are at similar levels to the pre-pandemic economy.
But other factors keep the cheer in check: Despite positive indicators of economic growth, however, consumer sentiment has fallen over the past two years. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, global military conflicts, and the upcoming 2024 presidential election are creating an environment of split attention for US consumers. Moreover, high inflation, even with its recent cooling, has led to peak prices for consumer staples—tightening budgets for holiday shopping and making for more intentional channel selection and deal-seeking throughout the season. Feeling uncertain but financially stable, households may choose to play it safe this holiday season but still spend as much as, or modestly more than, they did last year.
The 2024 Holiday Retail Calendar Adds Twists, Turns, and Speed
The holiday retail sleigh ride also gets some new twists and turns this year, courtesy of the calendar. We define the holiday season in five periods as outlined in Exhibit 1. In 2023, over 50% of the holiday shopping was completed before Thanksgiving. The Peak Holiday period (after Cyber Monday through Christmas Eve), however, was still the busiest with 36% of shopping.
This year, a late Thanksgiving leaves only 27 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas—five fewer shopping days compared to last year. Hanukkah is also later relative to 2023.
segundo, a eleição presidencial dos EUA ocorre no início de novembro. Os profissionais de marketing estão profundamente cientes dos fatores típicos da preparação para as principais eleições, incluindo um mercado de mídia lotado e custos mais altos devido ao aumento da concorrência. Esses fatores estão agora em pleno andamento, pois a eleição já está contratando a oferta e aumentando os preços para os melhores pontos de mídia que provavelmente chamam a atenção do consumidor. Como resultado, a atenção dos consumidores será realmente fragmentada, com muitos menos propensos a pensar em suas listas de compras de férias até que seus votos estejam dentro. Por que? A resposta está em uma distinção diferenciada: as mesmas circunstâncias podem afetar a confiança do consumidor de maneira diferente dos gastos reais do consumidor. Considere alguns eventos notáveis na história recente que afetaram a confiança do consumidor: a crise financeira, a pandemia e as duas últimas eleições presidenciais. Desses quatro, apenas duas diminuíram as reduções nos gastos do consumidor (a crise financeira e a pandemia). Nos dois casos, a queda na confiança do consumidor foi
Historical precedent suggests, however, that the election is unlikely to drive a contraction in consumer spending, no matter which candidate wins. Why? The answer lies with a nuanced distinction: the same circumstances can affect consumer confidence differently from actual consumer spending. Consider some notable events in recent history that affected consumer confidence: the financial crisis, the pandemic, and the last two presidential elections. Of these four, only two triggered decreases in consumer spending (the financial crisis and the pandemic). In both cases, the drop in consumer confidence was bipartisan e Gastos sofreram um acerto significativo. Por outro lado, durante as duas últimas eleições, a confiança do consumidor diminui foi Partisan em vez debipartisan—and consumer spending grew following both. Given this precedent, it is reasonable to predict that the election will have little ultimate impact on consumer spending, regardless of the outcome—but it could affect who is doing the spending, and when.
In light of these calendar twists and turns, we recommend that retailers keep three things in mind:
- We expect a distinct early peak in spending ahead of Black Friday & Cyber weekend—and that these weeks are a must-win timeframe for retailers
- The compressed peak season, the desire to wait-out higher media costs around the election, and fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas could create more active media and promo competition during Peak Season
- Winning strategies will be multi-faceted throughout the season, with the first tactics deployed in October and a highly responsive approach during peak December shopping days.
Shifting from Macro Timing Considerations to Micro Consumer Behavior
Entre as muitas tendências que surgiram durante a pandemia foi uma grande aceleração nas compras de férias durante a semana, o que levou a dias de semana, ultrapassando os fins de semana em gastos diários. Essa tendência viu uma reversão no ano passado durante a temporada de compras de férias de 2023, durante a qual as coisas pareciam retornar ao "normal" com os gastos durante a semana caindo um pouco abaixo dos níveis de sábado e domingo. As viagens de compras no fim de semana retornaram à rotina americana de consumidores e devem continuar até a temporada de festas de 2024. O comércio eletrônico continuou a crescer, e o destaque dos canais on-line é 1,4x mais alto durante a semana. Isso levanta as apostas para experiências digitais de segunda a sexta -feira. Com as compras on-line compreendendo 40% das compras durante a semana, está se aproximando rapidamente do status do canal primário para os consumidores que fazem compras durante a semana e não ficaríamos surpresos ao ver on-line exceder 50% dos gastos durante a semana nas próximas 2-4 temporadas de compras. O take -away?
But retailers shouldn’t underestimate the importance of weekday shopping. E-commerce has continued to grow, and the prominence of online channels is 1.4x higher during weekdays. This raises the stakes for digital experiences Monday through Friday. With online shopping comprising 40% of weekday shopping, it is quickly approaching the status of primary channel for consumers making weekday purchases, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see online exceed 50% of weekday spending in the next 2-4 shopping seasons. The takeaway? Ganhando a temporada de festas e atingindo metas de crescimento em 2024 e além, dependerá mais do sucesso da semana on-line do que nos dias registrados na loja no fim de semana.
Evolving Shopping Behavior and Channel Landscape Will Lead to Mixed Results
Over the past three years, some channels have struggled to keep pace with market growth while others have accelerated unexpectedly. The pandemic era (2019-2022) saw modest customer growth for direct-from-brand stores and specialty retailers. But both channels experienced significant acceleration last holiday season, and, continuing this trend, we expect them to continue to outgrow the total retail landscape this year.
Disruptor channels have found a solid foothold over the past two years. While they remain small, both social media commerce and online marketplaces specialized in deals and gamification such as Temu and SHEIN are becoming increasingly formidable players. Timing matters, though—direct, social media, and emerging marketplace channels see the most strength early in the holiday shopping season, when early shoppers are seeking the ‘just right’ gift and often prefer to buy directly from brands.
Later in the season, shoppers will insist on the predictable fulfillment and competitive prices that mega-retailers and platforms are better known for. Leaning into fast-fulfillment advantage can help capitalize on consumers seeking rapid shipping to ensure gifts arrive in time.
Our view is that holiday performance for consumer brands and for retailers will depend on well-timed execution, recognizing that shoppers have different missions across the full holiday season. Throughout the season deal-seeking will be a core behavior, in part a reaction to the higher prices across grocery and other non-discretionary categories.
How to Deck the Halls for a Different Holiday Season
In summary, the consumer outlook is positive, but there are some important things for retailers to bear in mind this year. First, the shorter Thanksgiving-to-Christmas shopping window will make early holiday sales more critical to full-season results. Second, the Presidential election while be a distraction for many and will crowd the media market, but shopping is likely to accelerate once votes are cast. Third, while weekend shopping trips have made a return, weekday eCommerce continues to gain importance and cannot be ignored. And fourth, consumer expectations will continue to vary widely across channels and at different moments in the season—priorities will shift across best brand, best fulfillment, or best deal depending on needs and timing.
US retailers can prepare for these twists and turns by taking 5 strategic actions:
- Be early & agile: Focus on winning early and making agile adjustments through the peak of shopping season, rather than waiting to deploy the best tactics when the market is most crowded. For example, creating micro moments that balance demand capture of physical shopping (weekend) with a weekday online deal strategy during early holiday
- Crie conteúdo atraente: em férias, varejistas e marcas não devem apenas pensar em qual produto eles querem vender, mas também sobre o que é necessário para vendê -lo. Durante esse período, o que importa para os consumidores são acordos, tendências/aparência e inspiração do guia de presentes. A IA pode ser uma ferramenta poderosa para permitir mais variedade de conteúdo nesta temporada a um custo menor.
- Ganhe a batalha pela influência: Para cortar o ruído, o conteúdo influente certo no canal certo é crítico. O conteúdo focado em guias de presentes, tendências, promoções, etc. Implantados em canais imersivos e ricos em comunidade, como o YouTube e o social, podem promover uma consideração inovadora neste tempo altamente competitivo. O loop de venda. Os clientes esperam e exigem atendimento previsível e experiências on -line contínuas - especialmente mais tarde na temporada. Com um terreno montanhoso e torcido à frente, através de um calendário de alta temporada comprimido e distrações relacionadas às eleições, é importante estar pronto com velocidade e agilidade. Com a abordagem correta, os varejistas podem esperar uma temporada de alegria, apesar de uma perspectiva moderada de crescimento para os gastos de férias dos consumidores dos EUA. Tópicos.
- Define a holistic activation plan: In addition to influence, brands and retailers need win on performance channels (e.g., search, product ads, commerce journalism) to drive conversion and close the sale loop.
- Remember the basics: Don’t forget the table stakes. Customers expect and demand predictable fulfillment and seamless online experiences – especially later in the season.
Ready the Sleigh and Hang on Tight
The 2024 Holiday season in the US will accelerate quickly, right out of the gate. With hilly, twisty terrain ahead across a compressed peak-season calendar and election-related distractions, it’s important to be ready with speed and agility alike. With the right approach, retailers can look forward to a season of cheer, despite a moderate growth outlook for US consumers’ holiday spending.
Special thanks to Hind Saleh, BCG SurveyOps, BCG Lighthouse, and Inc-Query for their support
