Este artigo compartilha perspectivas do BCG e das partes interessadas em toda a cadeia de valor de hidrogênio que serão úteis como uma preparação para aqueles que frequentam a Conferência Mundial da Semana do Hidrogênio em Copenhague. As perspectivas incluem tópicos como a cadeia de suprimentos de equipamentos de hidrogênio e a necessidade de colaboração do setor e também serão relevantes para todos os envolvidos ou considerando entrar ou cooperar com a indústria de hidrogênio. E, de fato, a indústria está crescendo, graças a uma combinação de compromissos políticos e regulatórios com a descarbonização, um investimento considerável de investidores institucionais e capital privado e das tecnologias que amadurecem rapidamente e cada vez mais eficientes, especialmente eletrolisadores e células de combustível.
Everyone with a stake in the emerging hydrogen industry understands its critical role both in decarbonizing hard-to-abate industries and in providing an alternative power source in a diversified energy security program. And indeed, the industry is growing, thanks to a combination of political and regulatory commitments to decarbonization, considerable investment from both institutional investors and private capital, and the rapidly maturing and increasingly efficient technologies needed, especially electrolyzers and fuel cells.
À medida que os fabricantes de células de eletrolisador e combustível continuam a melhorar sua tecnologia e a demanda cresce para hidrogênio de baixo carbono, o equipamento necessário será adquirido globalmente. As empresas multinacionais fabricam localmente e entregarão internacionalmente. Até 2030, o setor poderia produzir mais de 20 megatons por ano de hidrogênio verde, ou o equivalente a +200 gigawatts de capacidade de eletrolisador, o que poderia aumentar dez vezes em 2050.
Yet despite the industry’s promising future, bottlenecks are hindering the timely delivery of the electrolyzers, and fuel cells needed. This in turn has the potential to exacerbate regional competition between Europe, the US and Asia to gain the upper hand in further developing the technology and producing the hydrogen itself. Already, Western hydrogen equipment manufacturers are losing their technological edge over the rest of the world, and particularly Chinese players.
No single player holds all the capabilities needed to excel on all fronts in this rapidly forming industry. Only by working together can the different regional players take advantage of their complementary technological and manufacturing skills to scale up this crucial industry to the degree needed, and to do so profitably. Eventually, equipment manufacturers will need to embrace this regional contest and exploit the upsides of collaboration to make green hydrogen a success.
China Is on the Rise To Become a Strong Contender to Western Markets
Considered independently, the US, Europe and China each have strong motives for capturing their share of the hydrogen market, and distinct advantages that could further their efforts. Western markets, including both Europe and the US, are looking to build and control their local hydrogen ecosystem in order to boost their energy independence and resilience and to smooth the transition to a low-carbon economy for workers and legacy companies alike.
Europe and the US have a long-standing tradition of promoting innovation in hydrogen electrolyzers and fuel cells and using it in various industrial processes. As a result, these regions have maintained a technological edge and core knowhow on the component and systems levels. In Europe, for example, Norsk Hydro began manufacturing electrolyzers a century ago. And beginning in the 1960s, the US’s NASA space programs have created a strong base and supplier landscape for fuel cell technology.
Meanwhile, China has been developing its own hydrogen industry as part of its effort to decarbonize large sectors of its economy, notably transportation, a major cause of air pollution and the resulting health risks in its major cities. The growth of the industry there could allow it to dominate yet another energy technology, much like it has in the solar panel, battery, and other energy-related industries.
The Chinese government has established concrete 2025 targets for both the production and use of hydrogen of up to 200 kilotons of hydrogen production and between 6 and 12 gigawatts of electrolyzer capacity. It offers attractive financial incentives to domestic players including tax deferments and capex support for project and plant development.
Europe has a grace period of three to five years to expand its electrolysis and equipment footprint over rapidly evolving Chinese competition.
sua tecnologia também está melhorando. A China está patenteando agressivamente nova tecnologia de hidrogênio e células de combustível de baixo carbono, emitindo mais de 1.000 novas famílias de patentes na área em 2021, duas vezes o número de patentes emitidas na Europa e nos EUA combinados. E suas proezas de fabricação, escala e capacidade de desenvolver capacidade de produção rapidamente são insuperáveis. O preço dos eletrolisadores chineses pode ser duas a cinco vezes mais que os sistemas europeus, graças a custos mais baixos para mão-de-obra e componentes, concorrência local considerável e incentivos do governo. Apoiar o crescente ecossistema de hidrogênio não conseguiu acompanhar o crescente interesse pelo hidrogênio. Isso criou gargalos significativos em toda a cadeia de suprimentos que devem ser superados se a indústria de hidrogênio atender ao seu pleno potencial como um elemento -chave da transição energética.
A Vacuum Has Formed in the Hydrogen Greentech Space
Despite the Western regions’ technological advantages and China’s growing scale and large market for hydrogen, the global supply chain of parts, components and distribution infrastructure needed to support the growing hydrogen ecosystem has not been able to keep up with the newly rising interest in hydrogen. This has created significant bottlenecks across the supply chain that must be overcome if the hydrogen industry is to meet its full potential as a key element of the energy transition.
Esta situação é em grande parte o resultado da imaturidade da indústria de hidrogênio de baixo carbono e a necessidade de aumentar rapidamente. Ao contrário das indústrias de painéis eólicos e solares, que tiveram décadas para amadurecer, a demanda por eletrolisadores e células de combustível começou a aumentar muitas vezes nos últimos cinco a dez anos. Isso está criando gargalos e atrasos que cascata em toda a paisagem do fornecedor. Alguns são CYCLICAL-provavelmente podem ser aliviados no termo curto a médio. Outros são Estrutural e exigirão alterações fundamentais para resolver. Portanto, é menos crítico a longo prazo. No entanto, a interseção coincidente entre a desaceleração da economia global e atrasos na demanda por hidrogênio fez com que muitos dos OEMs de eletrolisador de primeira onda que se dirigissem ao espaço para abandonar seus esforços e criaram um vácuo parcial na cadeia de suprimentos. Um mercado que de outra forma poderia ter ficado rapidamente saturado deixou a porta aberta para uma segunda onda de OEMs para preencher o vazio-e desta vez é com um conjunto de jogadores e regiões mais disperso. desacelerar consideravelmente e atrasar a trajetória de crescimento promissor do setor. Em vez disso, os fabricantes de cada uma das três regiões precisarão trabalhar juntos e mesclar suas habilidades complementares para superar suas desvantagens individuais e os gargalos orientados para a oferta que estão diminuindo a velocidade mais ampla do ecossistema de hidrogênio e a subsídio de som e a falta de fracasso. 2).
As Exhibit 1 shows, the more critical bottlenecks relate to upstream activities involving the supply of sufficient energy feedstocks to hydrogen and synthetic fuel production, whereas the production of electrolyzers and fuel cells, and the infrastructure equipment for storage and distribution can be scaled from known technology. Hence, it is less critical in the long term.
The fuel cell and electrolyzer space is of particular interest, as it involves a great deal of core intellectual property and innovation in materials science and manufacturing. However, the coincidental intersection between the downturn in the global economy and delays in demand for hydrogen has caused many of the first-wave electrolyzer OEMs heading into the space to abandon their efforts and created a partial vacuum in the supply chain. A market that might otherwise have become quickly saturated has now left the door open for a second wave of OEMs to fill the void—and this time it’s with a more dispersed set of players and regions.
No Single Player Possesses the Full 360-Degree Capability Set of an Industry Champion
If equipment manufacturers in the key hydrogen producing regions continue to compete directly, however, progress in opening these bottlenecks could slow considerably and delay the industry’s promising growth trajectory. Instead, manufacturers in each of the three regions will need to work together and merge their complementary skills to overcome both their individual disadvantages and the supply-oriented bottlenecks that are slowing the broader hydrogen ecosystem’s rise.
We see three types of players currently at work in the hydrogen equipment industry, regardless of geography, each one with their own strengths and weaknesses (see Exhibit 2).
- The tech startup. Often spin-offs, these players typically start from a strong and innovative technology base, but need to build a professional organization, commercial traction and predictable cashflow to grow quickly.
- The incumbent scale-up. These dedicated hydrogen equipment players have ties to customers from early pilots deployed in the field, and they are not yet hindered by organizational bureaucracy. But they are inexperienced at scaling the business and have not normally established a broad geographical service footprint.
- O conglomerado industrial. These large companies from neighboring industries (such as industrial manufacturers, solar players, engine makers and others) have extensive experience in maturing and scaling up new products, widespread customer reach, and the ability to self-finance from a healthy balance sheet. However, they are often slowed by layered internal lines of command and organizational complexity, two qualities critical for short innovation cycles.
Each type of company needs to scrutinize and sharpen the shape of its ecosystem and assess its individual strengths to make the best decisions regarding issues such as whether to insource or outsource specific tasks. This includes combining core strengths such as R&D and technology innovation with strong industrialization capabilities, including precision manufacturing and automation at large volumes. Meanwhile, they must all consider factors beyond the product itself, including deep knowhow on end-use integration and aftersales issues such as local serviceability, which will define how successfully their equipment is deployed and maintained.
Because no single player possesses all these capabilities on its own, and no one has the luxury of time to build them from scratch, forming liaisons to ensure all-around best practices is the way forward. Such liaisons have the potential to combine all the capabilities of an industry champion if done right.
A criação de uma cadeia de valor de hidrogênio de ponta a ponta pode ser realizada através de parcerias mais ou menos formais entre os limites regionais por meio de esquemas de compartilhamento de riscos-benefício entre fornecedores estratégicos, fabricantes de equipamentos, integradores de sistemas de hidrogênio e clientes. Demonstrou -se que essas parcerias são especialmente bem -sucedidas em entregar ordens no prazo, dentro do orçamento e com a alta qualidade. Outros modelos incluem empreendimentos conjuntos entre os fabricantes atuais de eletrolisadores e células de combustível e acordos de licenciamento projetados para compartilhar tecnologias e fabricar o know-how entre os jogadores. Atualmente, a indústria de hidrogênio pode demonstrar todas as melhores práticas do setor em inovação tecnológica, excelência em fabricação e capacidades de entrada no mercado necessárias para prosperar no crescente ecossistema de hidrogênio de baixo carbono. Os fabricantes de equipamentos com maior probabilidade de ter sucesso são aqueles que podem combinar com sucesso suas habilidades complementares. Em toda a empresa e limites regionais de uma maneira que equilibra os interesses de todos os jogadores do ecossistema de hidrogênio e combina as vantagens individuais de todas as empresas e regiões para ajudar a construir um mundo mais limpo e verde menos propenso aos impactos da mudança climática.
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Equipment Players Should Aim for Co-Opetition To Shape a Successful Industry
It is in everyone’s interest to encourage the increased use of hydrogen and further develop the industry with strong players who can make hydrogen competitive.
No single player in the hydrogen industry can currently demonstrate all the industry best practices across technology innovation, manufacturing excellence and go-to-market capabilities needed to thrive in the growing low-carbon hydrogen ecosystem. The equipment manufacturers most likely to succeed are those that can successfully combine their complementary skillsets.
In the end, the guiding principle should be to build high-quality fuel cells and electrolyzers that are reliable over their full lifespan, ensuring that customers can reduce the levelized cost of the low-carbon hydrogen they produce.
The key is synergistic constellations and collaboration—working together across company and regional boundaries in a way that balances the interests of all the players in the hydrogen ecosystem and combines the individual advantages of every company and region to help build a cleaner, greener world less prone to the impacts of climate change.
