Hoje, a maioria dos gerentes de ativos permanece firmemente focada em defender e construir ativos principais gerenciados, os negócios tradicionais que têm muito tempo forneceu as revistas recorrentes. Eles o fazem, mesmo quando o mercado evolui e a parcela desses ativos gerenciados ativamente diminui lentamente como parte do todo. Soluções
Global Asset Management 2013
- Capitalizing on the Recovery
- The Asset Manager’s Quandary
- Harvesting Rewards by Offering Solutions
- A próxima fronteira de eficiência da gestão de ativos
Um grupo menor de gerentes, enquanto isso, está capitalizando a evolução recente do mercado, construindo com sucesso capacidades em soluções - as ofertas de alocação de ativos que, juntamente com os passos e especialidades, capturam uma participação de uma participação de grandes parcelas de grande portura. Ao fazer apostas em soluções, esses gerentes pioneiros entraram na vanguarda para dominar o fluxo mais forte do mercado de novos ativos: espera -se que as receitas aumentem 2,5 vezes a taxa dos ativos principais gerenciados ativamente.
Esses gerentes estão explorando uma tendência para soluções que aceleraram desde a crise financeira, impulsionadas por vários fatores:
Investidores ficaram frustrados e desiludidos com o desempenho dos ativos principais tradicionais e gerenciados. Quando um benchmark caiu 15 %, supera -o em 3 pontos percentuais ainda produz uma perda. Um retorno ruim é um retorno ruim. Uma repensação de metas de investimento produziu um reconhecimento mais forte de que existem conjuntos de ativos para satisfazer os passivos futuros-como obrigações do plano de pensão e despesas de aposentadoria-não apenas para maximizar os retornos imediatos. As correlações entre as classes tradicionais convergiram e os resultados sofreram. As estratégias vencedoras foram mais orientadas para as tendências e estratégias macro que mudaram a alocação dinamicamente para aproveitar as oportunidades nas aulas de ativos-não apenas dentro delas. Os dias do portfólio simples de 60-40 de 60 a 40 ações domésticas terminaram. Eles agora querem acesso a fundos de hedge e fundos de patrimônio privado incorporados em soluções dentro, porque não têm a escala ou a experiência para fazer esses investimentos diretamente. A complexidade de gerenciar essas soluções ao reagir rapidamente aos desenvolvimentos do mercado abriu uma oportunidade para os gerentes de ativos pioneiros capturarem novos fluxos líquidos se puderem desenvolver os recursos apropriados. No passado, essas soluções costumavam ser o domínio tradicional dos gerentes de patrimônio, consultores financeiros e consultores de investimento. Eles se tornaram cada vez mais personalizados e complexos nos espaços institucionais e no varejo. e os planos de pensão holandês - são cada vez mais personalizados para fundos de pensão. Essas soluções LDI estão sendo adaptadas para gerenciar riscos de taxa de juros, crédito, mercado e liquidez, a fim de atender aos passivos previstos. À medida que o mercado continua a crescer e se aprofundar, esperamos que as soluções Holísticas LDI cresçam e substituam soluções parciais de LDI, que geralmente não são mais do que portfólios de títulos de longo prazo que tentam abordar os perfis de responsabilidade e risco. Eles incluem recursos atuariais e analíticos, recursos de gerenciamento de riscos e um entendimento dos fluxos de caixa de responsabilidade. É interessante que existem apenas algumas subsidiárias de seguros entre os líderes. Embora as seguradoras geralmente tenham as capacidades principais necessárias, elas geralmente não têm relações com os consultores de investimento que intermediam a maioria dos novos negócios nos principais mercados de financiamento de pensões, incluindo o Reino Unido e os EUA
Investors’ historical focus on maximizing risk-adjusted returns was undermined by the volatility of both equity and fixed-income markets during the crisis. A rethinking of investment goals has produced a stronger recognition that asset pools exist to satisfy future liabilities—such as pension plan obligations and retirement expenses—not just to maximize immediate returns.
The traditional diversified asset-class strategies have failed the financial-crisis test. Correlations between traditional classes converged, and results suffered. The winning strategies were more oriented toward macro trends and strategies that shifted allocation dynamically to take advantage of opportunities across asset classes—not only within them.
The increasing complexity and internationalization of financial markets—and the growing difficulty of navigating them—has created new, specialized asset classes along with the need for greater asset-allocation expertise. The days of the simple 60-40 domestic equity-bond portfolio are over.
Small investors have joined institutional and other large investors in seeking exposure to esoteric, nontraditional, and uncorrelated asset classes. They now want access to hedge funds and private-equity funds embedded inside solutions, because they lack the scale or expertise to make those investments directly themselves.
Identifying and Tapping the Drivers of Asset Growth
As a result, both retail and institutional investors are increasingly turning toward outcomes or solutions that are specifically oriented to their investment needs. The complexity of managing these solutions while reacting quickly to market developments has opened an opportunity for pioneering asset managers to capture net new flows if they can develop the appropriate capabilities. In the past, these solutions have often been the traditional realm of wealth managers, financial advisors, and investment consultants.
As the solution market has grown and evolved, the nature of solutions themselves has evolved. They have become increasingly customized and complex in both the institutional and the retail spaces.
On the institutional side, increasing numbers of large plans are turning to full and partial plan-outsourcing services, which, in many cases, are delivered in a customized fashion rather than in comingled funds.
True liability-driven investment (LDI) solutions—such as those implemented by a growing number of U.K. and Dutch pension plans—are increasingly customized for pension funds. These LDI solutions are being tailored to manage interest rate, credit, market, and liquidity risks in order to meet anticipated liabilities. As the market continues to grow and deepen, we expect holistic LDI solutions to grow and replace partial LDI solutions, which are often no more than portfolios of long-term bonds that attempt to address liability and risk profiles.
The key capabilities required for developing and launching truly holistic LDI solutions are built on a foundation of deep technical knowledge. They include actuarial and analytical capabilities, risk management capabilities, and an understanding of liability cash flows. It is interesting that there are only a few insurance subsidiaries among the leaders. While insurers generally have the required core capabilities, they often lack relationships with the investment consultants who intermediate most of the new business in major pension-fund markets, including the U.K. and the U.S.
In Retail, an Explosion of Thematic Solutions
On the retail side, in which packaged solutions have traditionally been more common, the market is seeing the development of more custom solutions, as well as an explosion in the types of thematic solutions. Increasingly, the latter target specific outcomes for retail investors, such as inflation-hedged funds, income funds, liquidity management, tail risk management, and volatility-managed, tax-managed, and absolute-return or risk parity funds.
Fundos de data-alvo (TDFs), com um caminho de deslizamento de alocação de ativos mais específico, substituíram amplamente a geração anterior de fundos de risco-alvo para o planejamento da aposentadoria em muitos planos de contribuição definida (DC). Atualmente, os TDFs totalizam US $ 400 bilhões nos EUA e devem crescer para US $ 1 trilhão até 2016, porque são os principais fundos de opção padrão na maioria dos planos de DC. A demanda é impulsionada por necessidades específicas, bem como pelo desejo de maior diversificação e um interesse crescente em investimentos alternativos. Isso inclui idades esperadas de aposentadoria, exposição beta corporativa, curvas de promoção e renda e variações de planos de opção de estoque de funcionários nas taxas de participação e portfólios de ações. As taxas de adoção mais altas são esperadas para planos maiores - aqueles com mais de US $ 1 bilhão em AUM. Os TDFs semicustom fornecem benefícios como maior transparência de taxas, alocação de ativos mais diversificada e mais controle dos gerentes subjacentes. Eles, por exemplo, oferecendo acesso a fundos e commodities de investimento imobiliário, usando ETFs e gerenciamento passivo para reduzir taxas ou, ao introduzir a construção multimanager e de arquitetura aberta. Além das ofertas atuais, as tendências futuras em potencial incluem o seguinte:
Notably, within the high-growth TDF category, there is a rising demand from DC plans for customization. The demand is driven by specific needs, as well as the desire for greater diversification and a growing interest in alternative investments.
Many large corporations are investing in TDFs tailored to the varying needs of specific employee groups. These include expected retirement ages, corporate beta exposure, promotion and income curves, and employee-stock-option-plan variations in participation rates and stock portfolios.
Custom TDFs are expected to grow from $46 billion to $218 billion—a CAGR of 36.5 percent—from 2011 through 2016, as more large companies with significant resources discover the benefits of tailoring multiple glide paths for employees. Highest adoption rates are expected for larger plans—those with more than $1 billion in AuM.
Most of this demand will be for semicustom TDFs, which could meet 80 to 90 percent of plan needs, with just 9 percent of demand for truly custom TDFs. Semicustom TDFs provide such benefits as greater fee transparency, more diverse asset allocation, and more control of underlying managers.
While custom TDFs are currently dominated by a few managers, this wide range of potential benefits suggests opportunities for other players to differentiate themselves. They might do so, for example, by offering access to real estate investment trusts and commodities, using ETFs and passive management to reduce fees, or by introducing multimanager and open-architecture construction.
We believe that the market for solutions is likely to keep building and evolving at a fast pace and that innovation will be critical for players that aim to share in its success. Beyond the current offerings, potential future trends include the following:
Soluções temáticas e personalizadas
TDFs aprimorados e fundos de risco
Cheaper beta
Sophisticated alpha generation
Access to private assets
Coinvesting with the manager’s own assets
Blurring lines between consultants and asset managers
Outsourcing investment decisions
Building Capabilities to Surf the Solutions Wave
Managers hoping to successfully surf the growing solutions wave face fundamental decisions about how to participate and what capabilities they should focus on developing.
As a starting point, managers need to assess their capabilities in a number of dimensions, including from a manufacturing perspective. Do they have the ability to manage money other than against a defined benchmark? Do they have an asset allocation capability—strategic, as well as tactical and dynamic? Do they have capabilities across multiple asset classes? Can they manufacture all the elements of a solution themselves, or do they need to outsource some asset classes? Do they have a manager search and oversight capability?
From a distribution perspective, managers must give careful thought to the design of the go-to-market model; traditional managers are unlikely to have existing channels or people capable of selling solutions. The solution sales cycle is often longer than a single asset-class sales mandate. Managers must also consider how to circumvent potential channel conflict with investment consultants and other gatekeepers offering competitive solutions. It is critical for solutions managers to develop and maintain relationships with end customers and home offices—without disintermediating investment consultants.
Finally, managers must develop a thorough understanding of their cost structure and maintain rigorous discipline in the pricing of solutions. This is the case particularly for custom solutions, which may be difficult to scale across multiple clients. Additionally, managers need to have nimble middle and back offices to facilitate creating and operating a solutions offering.
Managers that succeed in getting these elements right will have the key to unlock enormous growth opportunities.
